No announcement yet.

Sample size

  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Sample size

    How many hours making 20BB/hr at a particular stake would you say is enough of a sample size to begin feeling confident that you have a good grasp of the skills for that level of play? My gut tells me 100 hours is a decent enough sample size to rule out running particularly hot.

  • #2
    It really depends what game you're playing. I would only think in terms of BB/hr for live cash, for MTTs look at ROI over number of games, for online cash and MTTs look at EVBB/100.

    If you are talking live cash, it definitely depends what stake you're at now and what the games are like in general where you are. If you're beating 1/2 for 20BB/hr over 100hr there are 10/25 games you could profitably play but also 2/5 games that would be tough. Also ask how it's been going. Are you confidently making good decisions and then verifying that off table, or are you winning flips but often finding yourself not sure what to do?

    TLDR: If you're talking about live 1/2 and have a $5K-$10K bankroll and have a job that covers your nut, definitely take like $3K and take a few shots at 2/5.
    - Keep that in mind, but in live cash we can definitely take shots because the games on average are pretty soft


    • raywarrior
      raywarrior commented
      Editing a comment
      Thanks for the link and the feedback. Currently at 21.5 BB/h but that is only 40 hours in at 1/2 and 1/3. I have spent about 20 hours in the past year playing 2/5 before I started tracking my stats and found that in that short amount of time I did better at 2/5. 20 hours is not nearly enough to say if that is simply variance. I think it has something to do with the fact that I realized that bluffing the river in 2/5 is seems to be significantly easier? Anyway, according to the link it says 20,000 hands is a good sample size to feel comfortable with the numbers. It says that the avg for live play is 25 hph in a 9 handed game so I will assume closer to 30 since my games have basically been 7 handed (maybe 8 at Borgata). That's 667 hours to get to that sample size. Significantly more than I thought. At least now I know. Thanks again!

  • #3
    Do you study or are you just good enough to beat live cash? I'm not trying to be a wise guy it's a serious question.

    The reason I ask is if you don't study you will likely find yourself stuck beating 1/2 and maybe doing ok in 2/5. I don't study cash but like you I don't play it that often but I still find the low stakes live rather easy to beat. That said I could probably win more and more consistently if I actually worked on getting better in cash games. I do study tournaments regularly and I do think there will be some carry over whenever I find myself in a casino again but they are different games.

    I guess what I'm trying to say is if you're goal is to continue moving up in stakes you are going to need to study often and continue studying to some extent until you're ready to give up the game or eventually move back down to a certain level. Poker is constantly changing.

    I think at 2/5 live you'll run into more players that work on their game away from the table, even more so at 5/10. So while there will always been some whales the games will generally get tougher.

    Cautionary Tale

    40 hours is nothing btw,
    I've been here 2.5 years. I can remember learning a few new things the first couple of months and publicly stating I think I'm starting to get this haha.
    A year later saying I don't know shit lol.
    18 months later and I'm happy that I finally listen to Jonathan Little's advice on BRM and finding games I can beat. Managing my bankroll and playing mostly only games I can beat.
    2.5 years later and I'm on the cusp of moving up in stakes and still learning something every week.
    Had I listen sooner I wouldn't have dug myself such a deep whole to climb out of and I would already be playing higher stakes
    There are no shortcuts.

    I'm almost certain that I can beat the higher stakes where I play at this point but I'm still not rolled for them yet.
    I could add some of my own money but I'm committed to play with what I can win. In the meantime I will continue to study and keep grinding out the $5 - $20 tournaments and I will be even better prepared when the time comes for me to move up.

    There is a much better player than me in this group who is starting to rebuild his bankroll after not playing for 2 years. He is committed to playing only the $5 tournaments while he builds his BR back up. That is truly inspirational to me and further proof that it's the correct approach. Unless of course you have unlimited disposable income....