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First great read or luck?

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  • First great read or luck?

    So, I had what I think was a great read and a great play but want to make sure it wasn't the wrong play and I got lucky. 2/5 at Borgata. I'm in BB with 260BB stack. UTG raises to 25 (similar stack) LJ and Button call, I call with 3c5h (I know, too loose). Pot 20.5bb. Flop 4d 6d Js. I donk bet 13bb, UTG calls, Button calls. Pot 59.5bb. Turn 7d, I lead out with 35bb, UTG raises all in with his roughly 185bb stack. Button thinks for about 90sec and folds. So there is a flush on the board and I have the straight (not too concerned about 5 8). If the button has the nut flush, why bet 1.8x pot? Nobody can call that except maybe top or middle set, if that). He's almost certainly not getting any value. If he has a lower flush, he must be concerned that I either donk bet with possibly nut flush draw or button is calling with it. When I ask how much again, he says $1000, although its more like 930 or so which makes me think he is trying to make it sound like as much as possible. After playing with him for a couple of hours, he seems like a decent player. Reasonable aggression, not particularly loose but is making smart plays more or less. The only thing I can think of here is that he has a piece of the board and the nut flush draw i.e. Ad Jc. Maybe aces with the Ad. I call. dealer deals last card, a blank, he says nice call and shows the aces. Was this a good play on my part or did I get lucky?

  • #2
    It's brave to ask the question, but I'd say this is very lucky indeed.

    Preflop: You'd be hard pressed to ever find an easier fold. Very poor decision.

    Flop: I can commend the creativeness to some extent. But really, this is very poor again. Leading into 3 players with just 6 clean outs is never going to be profitable. Think about the UTG opening range. He is raising to 5x when first to act so you know he has something good. When you make this play you are bluffing with a bit of equity to fall back on, but the problem here is that you have practically zero fold equity. If our opponents are not going to fold to our bluffs, we should not be bluffing.

    Turn: We make our straight, but importantly the flush completes. Your logic is very flawed here. As well as the sets that you correctly identified could be in your range, you are of course now calling with a straight or a lower flush too. If he has the nut flush he can 100% get value from hands. Especially when you've gone all out to show the strength of your hand.

    Let's wait to see what others say, but I think this was very lucky.


    Please treat this as constructive criticism. Keep posting hands and asking questions. We're all here to help each other get better.

    Comment


    • #3
      I have to agree with London here. You just got lucky all the way around.

      Preflop: Is definitely a fold in the BB. If you were on the button and had a couple of callers I could see, but it is just a bad play in the BB.

      Flop: Leading is bad because if you get raised you have to throw away your hand, which isn't a bad idea because you lose two outs to the flush.

      Turn: Your logic escapes me here because you said " So there is a flush on the board and I have the straight (not too concerned about 5 8). If the button has the nut flush, why bet 1.8x pot? Nobody can call that except maybe top or middle set, if that). He's almost certainly not getting any value", but yet you called anyway. So if he made the flush, you would have paid him off.

      In poker, worry less about results and making the right play. You made the wrong play and royally sucked out. It happens.

      Thanks!

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