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  • About getting money in good and making money

    Hello guys,

    Well, I have this weird question and I am asking it because I probably am confused about a poker concept somewhere, somehow:

    I understand that if you very often put your money in good, you will eventually be making money in the long run but, what is keeping count? Who is keeping count? I hope you understand my question. I mean, let's say you lose 6 times in a row with AA over 2 poker sessions where you have logged out of your poker client between sessions: What if you log back in and lose another 5 times in a row with AA. I understand that you will eventually make money with AA but, isn't that true for one long session only? There's something I don't get.

    I mean, if we are sitting down at a table with a fair coin and flip that coin 48888888 times, I understand that we will eventually get even. But what if we flip that fair coin 50 times and then stop and play again in 1 week and this time, we flip the coin 25 times? I might end up losing 65% of the coin flips, even though the coin is fair?

    If we were always talking about AA, then I would understand that you eventually come out on top if you're always playing that particular hand. But you can be losing many times in a row with AA and on top of that, lose with AK and JJ and QQ many times and be out of the tournament money many times. How are you making money in the long run that way? Who's keeping count? What is keeping count?

    I really am confused about that "Making money in the long run concept".

    Sorry if this is confusing to many of you, I was hoping for a clear answere where someone doesn't say I'm an idiot

    Thank you!

    3Bet Nutz

  • #2
    The long run is not 1 or 2 session. It is not even 1 or 2 months.

    The long run is 10,000+ hands played. The long run is when your volume of hands is so high that the variance shrinks.

    Yes losing with AA 5 times in a row is a very short term period of bad luck. But you are supposed to lose with AA 20% of the time every time you get dealt that hand. Losing 5 times in a row does happen. It is supposed to happen at sometime to someone somewhere. It is supposed to happen 3.2/10,000 occurrences. Rare but not impossible. So if millions of hands are played each day, it should statistically happen to about 30 people in the world every day.

    On the other hand, let me ask this, did you make or call any bets where you clearly had indications that 1 pair was no longer a good hand? The good players learn to lose the minimum when they are beat.

    Losing with AA sucks. Losing more than you should have is a leak.

    Comment


    • 3Bet Nutz
      3Bet Nutz commented
      Editing a comment
      Hello jjpregler! First and foremost, thank you so much for taking the time to answer my question. I understand that losing depends on how I play as well. But it's just that I didn't understand what is keeping count of my play if you will. I have a hard time understanding what is or who is compiling my play to give me good or bad results in the end, in the long run.

      I appreciate your time, thx again!

      3Bet Nutz

    • jjpregler
      jjpregler commented
      Editing a comment
      Nobody or nothing is keeping track of your play. It is just based on math and statistics which over a large sample tend to even out towards the average.

    • 3Bet Nutz
      3Bet Nutz commented
      Editing a comment
      hello again jjpregler,

      I understand what you are saying but that is why I'm asking the question. It's hard for me to even formulate my question, let's see here:

      How is my every day play over time gathered and calculated by math and stats over time for me to be making money if I play well? I mean, it's all in the air isn't it?

  • #3
    Volume cures variance. Especially if you're playing cash games, don't think about your sessions as independent, your life is one big long cash session. The more hands you play, the closer to EV you will run, so if you're making +EV plays, you will eventually profit.

    MTTs are a littttle different because payout structure, but the same thought applies, if you're getting it in good over and over again, eventually you're going to win enough flips to take down a tournament, and if you're playing enough tournaments making +EV plays your ROI will be positive.

    Using your coin flip metaphor-- is it possible to flip a coin 100 times today and lose 60? Of course. Is it possible to to flip a coin 100 times once a week for 8 weeks and lose 500? Sure. Is it possible to flip a coin 100 times a day, 3 days a week, for 50 weeks in a year? It's possible but extremely unlikely. From a statistics perspective, each hand (or coin flip) is an independent event, not influenced by the previous or future events, so if the odds are really in your favor (you're making +EV plays) as your sample size approaches infinity, you will get closer and closer to EV

    Comment


    • #4
      I just read a quote yesterday:

      In the long run there is no luck in poker, but the short run is longer than most people know.
      ~Rick Bennet.

      Comment


      • #5
          • I understand what you are saying but that is why I'm asking the question. It's hard for me to even formulate my question, let's see here:

            How is my every day play over time gathered and calculated by math and stats over time for me to be making money if I play well? I mean, it's all in the air isn't it?
            • Flag
        Math is math and will never change. 2+2 will always equal 4. Getting back to the aces example, you will win with AA in a heads up pot, about 82% of the time and lose 18% of the time. The math does not say it will be spread out evenly, just over infinity, the aces with win 82% of the time.

        Math is the reason casinos are built. They know they have a built in edge in the game and that edge does not change. So yes, they will have some big losses in the short run, but over the long haul, the math smooths things out. Think of it this way; say you win a pot with pocket aces and the pot contains $100. You won 18% more than you hand was worth because it only had 82% equity. So on the pots you win, you get extra equity and when you lose a pot with AA, you give that extra equity back.

        The way you handle the swings in money is to play at stakes you are properly bankrolled for. If you play at stakes that are too high, short term variance can wipe you out. I hope this helps!

        Thanks!

        Comment


        • #6
          I'm not sure if I'm understanding. Are you asking how do you keep track of your personal statistics? Because the answer to that is a poker tracking software like PokerTracker4. As to who is keeping count. Like the above people are saying, math is math. AA will win against a particular range a certain amount of the time. So for instance, I lost pocket AA several times in a row and was feeling tilted. So i went to my stats in PT4 and looked up (All In Preflop, AA). Though i lost a few times in a row, my cash was overall positive for everytime i took that action. So in the long run i made money when i shove preflop with AA and more often than not, that is a good decision to make.

          Comment


          • #7
            I just want to say thank you guys for your kind answers! I have been playing for a few years and it seems like I am not improving and still stuck in micros. I have watched videos, read articles, watched streams and played about 500 000 hands online in my latest HM database. For example, I had deposited $60 which I turned into $437 but as we speak, I'm down to $150 playing the same sngs and mtts ... I dont understand. I know there is variance but, I should be able to lose some and then grow that $437 even more. I have always tried to keep a 100 buy-ins approach. Im currently losing most of my profit and almost back to starting square .. it's very discouraging. At $437, my goal was to get to $500 and then $1000 . and beyond ... and its just not happening. I havent deposited in a year, Im playing with the same money, I never lose it all but, I dont keep my profit either and dont grow ...

            Comment


            • #8
              Lemme chime in here because OP's last post besides the thank you note still says "I don't understand." And while all the answers given so far are basically correct, OP and the responders may be talking past each other a bit.

              So here goes: Absolutely nobody and nothing are keeping track. That's the key thing. There is no force in the universe pushing things toward even. It's just that, even with pure randomness, variations from the average get diluted over time.

              Consider that it is entirely possible to flip a coin 10 times in a row and get all heads. And then your next one can be heads too. If that happens you will never get those back. Nothing in the universe will ever work to push that toward even. However, if you keep flipping 1000 times, those ten heads you started with will get diluted. But that's it--short term variations get diluted in the big pool--nothing else.

              Now...OP also seems to be asking a more practical question about why he can't grow his winnings. Well, it must be realized that the wins could be the variance. The long term average could be flat or even down. Then you'd expect to see your results go sideways or down. Remember that other players may be just as smart and trying just as hard as you are. But that has nothing to do with statistics.

              Comment


              • #9
                It is a bit of a fallacy to think that luck will even out in the long run. For example let's say you flip a coin with a friend winning one dollar each time you guess right and losing one dollar when you guess wrong. After doing this one hundred times you are likely to have either won or lost about 7 dollars. To break exactly even is very unlikely. So let's say you decide to flip a coin one million times instead. This does not help, now you are likely to have either won or lost 5 000 dollars, breaking even is virtually impossible. So if you flip enough times one of you will for sure go broke. What does even out is the amount won per flip which will get closer and closer to zero the more times you flip. (These are made up numbers for illustrative purposes and could be off by a fair bit).

                Comment


                • LondonImp
                  LondonImp commented
                  Editing a comment
                  This is nonsense.

              • #10
                There is no such thing as account maintenance in poker. As for losing in poker, there are many reasons, both for professionals and beginners. There are many reasons we make some mistakes during gaming sessions. It's impossible to count them all. It can be overconfidence or banal inattention, and even the personal qualities of a player that can not always be associated with poker play a role. In general, any sites, applications where you play games for money pump up a person's intellect and confidence. But at the same time, the main enemy appears, gambling excitement.
                Last edited by Ceskyusaie; 07-12-2021, 05:01 PM.

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