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i think going allin preflop could be best , it avoids mistakes

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  • i think going allin preflop could be best , it avoids mistakes

    https://upswingpoker.com/hand/?pokeit=224VhxZQc

    on the flop my first intention was to check , i am hating myself for not checking

    i could not bet bigger due to SPR

    i might have a slight range advantage but no or almost no nut advantage


    i think going allin preflop could be best , it avoids mistakes

    what are your thoughts on this ?

  • #2
    I think best not to fruther ramp up variance which is much harder to beat than people. He could have T9. Why fold??
    Last edited by broke&livin; 09-06-2021, 09:56 AM.

    Comment


    • #3
      hi broke T9 is just a very small part of villians range , i just cannot give villian my best case scenario point of view too often : )

      and even when he has Th9h (best case scenario) he has 37% equity which is quite substantial

      Comment


      • kkep
        kkep commented
        Editing a comment
        Interestingly you are supposed to mostly jam T9s clubs, spades hearts

    • #4
      Shoving pre-flop will clearly leave you unable to mistakes post-flop, but it's certainly not the most +ev option.

      I see no reason to cbet here. Are we really going to get value from a hand like AT? Are we going to get a pair to fold? Considering he should have very few low pocket pairs in his range considering his position and lack of implied odds preflop, I would say no.

      At this SPR I think I would be checking close to 100% of the time with this hand.

      Comment


      • #5
        hi LondonImp : ) mhmm he might call with a J or a Q for instance and every A, K , T improves me on the turn for a cheap turn

        with this small of a bet i dont see him a fold a pair but planning ahead for future streets ...

        lets have a look at solvers recommendation

        solver says indifferent between checking and betting small see picture you need to mix it up in theory

        note if you choose to bet substantially bigger solver likes checking exclusively

        Comment


        • #6
          Think about what range he's going to call a 3! with. It's going to be littered with broadways. A T helps us for sure, but an A or a K cannot be counted on as a clean out.

          Comment


          • Guido
            Guido commented
            Editing a comment
            True but if i only rely on clean outs i will play too nitty , a turned straight is just a small part of villians range

          • LondonImp
            LondonImp commented
            Editing a comment
            Yes, but we're not just talking about a turned straight.

            AQ/AJ/KQ/KJ are all hands that are going to be in his 3! flatting range. It could easily be a reverse implied odds spot.

          • Guido
            Guido commented
            Editing a comment
            ok london this is actually true thx

        • #7
          does snowie say what check shove on flop? If it is snowie v snowie, oop can jam any 2 based on your sizing tale and spr? I don't think I realised how crazy people are, and they all have a chance. If program says you win 2bb per 100 hands, does it say variance is 10bb?
          Last edited by broke&livin; 09-09-2021, 04:19 AM.

          Comment


          • LondonImp
            LondonImp commented
            Editing a comment
            Decent programs will take into account variance in the stats they provide.

            Generally, "bb/100" will show many blinds you win on average every 100 hands. "Adj bb/100" shows how many blinds you win on average every 100 hands once variance is taken into account.

            For example, I might have stats of:

            bb/100: -5
            Adj bb/100: +5

            This means that although I lost 5bb per 100 hands, without variance I would've won 5bb per 100 hands.

            In order to remove variance from our games, we simply have to play a HUGE amount of volume.

            Does that make sense?

          • broke&livin
            broke&livin commented
            Editing a comment
            -8BB to +12BB won't help people sell their programs. You are advanced enough to know ev plays a small role right?

          • LondonImp
            LondonImp commented
            Editing a comment
            I'm not sure what you mean? If you have a win rate of +12 adj bb/100 you are crushing your stakes.

            If a program could GUARANTEE me that long term win rate I would buy it immediately haha

        • #8
          Another point Guido, is that your solver shows that betting and checking have the exact same expected value.

          Checking is always going to be lower variance than betting. If our EV is the same, then I would almost always want to take the lower variance option.

          Comment


          • broke&livin
            broke&livin commented
            Editing a comment
            cash players tell me tournaments more complicated because of stack sizes, cim. There is no way snowie can win. What of the people who follow snowie?
            Last edited by broke&livin; 09-09-2021, 06:46 AM.

          • Guido
            Guido commented
            Editing a comment
            Thats a very valid point ! However long Termed equal EV is equal Ev

          • LondonImp
            LondonImp commented
            Editing a comment
            Yes, but higher variance means you need a bigger bankroll to play the same stakes. Or, alternatively, you need to play lower stakes if you can't increase your bankroll another way.

        • #9
          I like the 3bet pre. If you have skill this is where you use it. There are too many people behind preflop. If you shippy and get called, likely behind. I think that is a good flop.

          Hero wants to shippy pre like 100% population knows how.
          Last edited by broke&livin; 09-09-2021, 06:48 AM.

          Comment


          • #10
            3! a bit smaller from 26BB 2.7x is probably better.

            I'm cbetting flop 100% and I like that you used 25%, however I use 20% there.

            We can't fold to the check jam with AK

            Comment


            • #11


              bet fold

              bet call

              check

              all in pre


              its all luck.

              as bet size gets smaller, I prefer check. there are different camps wtihin bet call.

              Comment


              • kkep
                kkep commented
                Editing a comment
                For sure and as stated earlier the EV is essentially the same. I prefer to stay aggressive.
                Much of our range benefits from a small bet and it often buys showdown when we are in position which is nice sometimes.
                Of course a portion of our range loses some EV using a small bet too but it's only our very best combos.

                To be clear I'm referring to this exact spot.

            • #12
              Originally posted by kkep View Post
              3! a bit smaller from 26BB 2.7x is probably better.

              I'm cbetting flop 100% and I like that you used 25%, however I use 20% there.

              We can't fold to the check jam with AK
              If you are going to cbet, small is definitely the way to go. I would go 25% myself, but that's just because I have a 25% button that I use!

              I don't think we should be range betting here though. Against an UTG 3! flatting range on a QJx board I don't think our range advantage is going to be big enough. We do have a nut advantage of course with the 12 combos of overpairs (I'd imagine that UTG has JJ almost always in their range, and more passive players may have QQ too) so I'd be looking to use a polarised strategy here. I'd probably check back AA as the board is rainbow and it doesn't need much protection.

              Comment


              • LondonImp
                LondonImp commented
                Editing a comment
                I'd bet smaller because of the low stack to pot ratio.

                We can't bet one size with good hands and another size with weak hands. That's just poor poker.

              • broke&livin
                broke&livin commented
                Editing a comment
                if turn comes cheap, let us be real, you own goal yourself. oop did you favor shippy on flop.

              • kkep
                kkep commented
                Editing a comment
                This is a concept I am just starting to look at and it's going to take quite some time for a deep dive.

                It's my belief that the smaller we bet the less checks we have to have but ofc we don't want to cbet so small that we would have trouble comfortably getting stacks in by the river.

                So for now I generally go to a 20% range cbet when I'm opening 2x which is essentially less than 30BB effective for me. What I think is cool about this is that many players already don't xr enough OOP and they generally won't find more as I think they should facing a smaller bet (guess work). If the V is IP I don't know if they should be raising more or not but I suspect they should but typically won't.

            • #13
              assume snowie fishy is competent, I don't think it is and it says check on flop, you get to turn with more hands than you know what to do. Turn you own goal yourself or river. Result will be worse.

              Comment


              • #14
                I think you should relax a little. You shouldn't blame yourself for checking it out. I'm sure you were aware of your chances. I won't force you to play, but I think that you decided to check it out for some reason, but just got a less pleasant scenario. Maybe you should play on reputable casinos not on gamestop, where you will make small bets to get more useful experience. Playing with such small bets, you can test yourself in as many dangerous situations as possible, and check how to do better by spending less money. Call it a simulator if you want, but it really works. I always did this when I started my career in gambling
                Last edited by BrandonSandersonH; 09-18-2021, 04:07 AM.

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