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3 year long downswing

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  • 3 year long downswing

    A scary thing. Anyone knows anything other than run and hide?

  • #2
    First measure the downswing in hands played for cash or tournaments played for MTTs. If you're grinding 10+ tables online for 40 hours per week every week a 3 year downswing is insanely sick. If you're playing live cash 15 hours a week 40 weeks a year three years is still a pretty bad downswing but very much in the realm of possibility.

    Then question whether it's actually a downswing. If you're playing online are you running a positive EVBB/100 and still losing? Live are you recording all your significant hands and studying them with others to determine if you've made errors? Once you hit 100K hands if you're losing it becomes far more likely it's a result of your play than variance.

    If you really are sure you're a winning player and just on the bad side of variance you need to decide whether you can stomach it. It if you can keep studying and crank up the volume, it's the only way to overcome the variance. If not it may be time to hang it up

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    • #3
      3 years is what people say they have seen. I won't last 4 months. When you are losing as 86%faorvite going to river, you realise how helpless the percentages are and who is boss. It is so so extraordinary that past 6 or 7 times I picked up KK, someone had AA without fail. I spiked K on flop once.
      Last edited by broke&livin; 08-10-2021, 11:59 PM.

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      • #4
        think adding volume to run bad is sure way to lose infinity, which becomes impossible to recover.
        Last edited by broke&livin; 08-11-2021, 02:15 PM.

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        • Dilly
          Dilly commented
          Editing a comment
          If your run bad is actually because of bad play, you are correct. If you are actually a winning player, you have a positive win rate, if you have a positive win rate your EV is positive, the more hands you play the closer to EV you will run. This means if you are a winning player your chances of running below EV decrease the more hands you play. The issue with this is it's near impossible to accurately estimate your win rate.

          Would recommend checking out this variance calculator to see these factors at play - https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

        • GusP
          GusP commented
          Editing a comment
          Also i think you need to study and work on theory of poker and how percentages and expectations work out.Actually you should be happy when you lose as a big favorite to a hand because you have made your opponent to make a mistake against you.If this mistake happens time after time you always print money in the long run

        • b4uzzzz
          b4uzzzz commented
          Editing a comment
          Most people do play more when losing.
          Last edited by b4uzzzz; 08-13-2021, 12:41 AM.

      • #5
        I tried to reach out to a former poker bud. He's moved on to private games. They aren't interested in poker content or solver work, they have easier time to make more. I never could afford playing that high.
        Last edited by broke&livin; 08-12-2021, 03:40 AM.

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        • Dilly
          Dilly commented
          Editing a comment
          Yeah if your only goal is to make money with the least amount of input then creating or getting invited to juicy private games is 100% the way to go. That being said there are people who are excellent at creating and getting invited to juicy private games who also have done significant studying, with or without solvers, who almost definitely crush those types of games at a much higher win rate than those who don't study. Andrew Robl and Phil Helmuth come to mind.

      • #6
        I think what he meant was when facing the same players, only exploitative play needed. One day he will buy a million dollar home, big ol moron like me still doing quiz and playing same stakes when we met.
        Last edited by broke&livin; 08-12-2021, 12:08 PM.

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        • b4uzzzz
          b4uzzzz commented
          Editing a comment
          Ain't that a bitch.

      • #7
        soul crushing downswing continues. I have gotten out before. But maybe sooner or later 97% people will run into a downswing they can not get out of. Linus spoke of being lucky enough to win big tournament every time he was in a major downswing in cash games. It happened to him twice. If 97% people lose, where does the money disappear to?
        Last edited by broke&livin; 08-17-2021, 02:30 AM.

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        • LondonImp
          LondonImp commented
          Editing a comment
          It goes to rake, and the very small percentage of long-term winners.

      • #8
        broke&livin - if you want to post some of your stats from PT4/HM3 I'll happily take a look through them for you to see if I can find anything that you can work on to help get out of the hole. Sometimes a fresh site of eyes can do a lot of good.

        Comment


        • broke&livin
          broke&livin commented
          Editing a comment
          I don't know what you need.

      • #9
        Downswing is over and not over. Good thing is I run normal now. Bad thing is I didn't come out swinging. Even downswing subject to variance.

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        • #10
          so much luck, right back to downswing

          Comment


          • LondonImp
            LondonImp commented
            Editing a comment
            It's called variance

          • broke&livin
            broke&livin commented
            Editing a comment
            and up again.

        • #11
          You need to stop checking your results so often. In poker there are going to be loads of downs as well as ups, but the downs hurt more.

          Give this a quick read: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_aversion

          If you want to dig a bit more into the subject, read "Fooled By Randomness" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. You could also listen to it in audiobook format which I what I did during my work commutes.

          I think it will give you a good insight into, and better understanding of, randomness and how we react/understand it and then how that relates to us as poker players.

          Comment


          • broke&livin
            broke&livin commented
            Editing a comment
            It is better to watch videos on poker downswing and i have read that book. Have to pay to learn
            Last edited by broke&livin; 08-28-2021, 07:20 AM.

        • #12
          Players are easy enough. Can not beat the amount of luck, however implausible. Think this is why 97% lose. Just got bad beat 5 times by the same player, at least 4/5 domination preflop, 5/5 ahead preflop.

          If it were 5/5 domination, odds are 0.39%. 4/5 is 11.8% x 46% = 5.4%

          He had 0.39% to 5.4% chance of winning all 5 and it happened.

          Last edited by broke&livin; 08-29-2021, 11:59 AM.

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          • #13
            Took down a small one. When running bad, it is like swimming against the tide. When running good, anyone can win.

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