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Bad call?

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  • Bad call?

    Have KK in the BB. 1/2 9 handed. UTG +1 raises to $10. 4 callers. I reraise to $83. Everyone folds but SB who is a particularly aggressive LAG. He almost always C-bets large and usually bets large into checks. Pot is $203. Flop is A Q 7 rainbow. He checks, I check. Turn is 3. He goes all in with remaining $170. Is this a call?

  • #2
    This is a gross spot, and certainly very player dependant.

    Let's take a quick look at the odds:

    170 / ( 203 + 170 + 170 ) = 31.3%.

    So we need to win 31.3% of the time on average (excluding rake) to break even here. So let's bump that up a couple of points and say if we have 34% equity or more than we call.

    You have to imagine that an aggressive LAG would probably have ISO raised himself with with his strongest Ax hands as well as AA and QQ so we can eliminate a few value combos that way.

    He probably thinks that you are going to cbet with the majority of your Ax hands on the flop so when you check that weakens your range which may induce him to bluff at a greater frequency.

    If he is a LAG, and noticably more aggressive than usual, I think we have to call here.

    If he was a more loose, passive opponent then there should be serious alarm bells going off and over-folding is unlikely to be particularly -ve EV even if he does bluff you occasionally.
    Last edited by LondonImp; 07-19-2021, 05:27 AM.


    • #3
      So in a very tough spot like this, is it close to being a GTO setting (probably by chance) whereby as the hero either option is close to equally good or bad and so it doesn't matter hugely from an EV perspective, even if calling $170 obviously matters there and then.

      By this I mean in a spot like this, if the equity and expected win rate are likely to be v close - as much as we can tell in the moment - then you might as well almost flip a coin? Does this perhaps free you up to think purely in terms of the player and just a gut instinct about recent play in this spot?


      • #4
        I think you can reach no greater height than gut instinct. I could be wrong of course. You seem to suggest circle around back.