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Donking the flop from the blinds

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  • Donking the flop from the blinds

    I was playing 2/5 in my local casino, six players. I was BB with 76. Folded to the Btn who opened for 15, only I called (I'll often 3bet with similar hands btw). Btn is a typical loose weak rec player opening with a wide range. Flop Was AQ5. I led out 2/3 pot and Btn folded. Obviously this hits his range a lot harder than mine, but I've had a lot of success with this play against weak rec players. I'll also often try it when they've opened from the cutoff. What do you guys think of this play, have you tried it yourselves, maybe you hate the play or bet size, or is it ultimately doomed to fail?

  • #2
    Originally posted by kingnuts93
    I don't know how people justify loose open pre with position and then fold to flop lead.
    They're weak rec players a.k.a. droolers. They're going to see if they've got a piece of the flop, and if not they'll fold. Floating isn't something they'll normally do or even think of. I wouldn't try this against anyone good or tricky. I also wouldn't try it against the same player for at least another hour. It also seems to work well against a cutoff open-raise btw. If they're going to overfold then I'm going to overbluff.
    Last edited by allin; 06-28-2021, 04:10 AM.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by allin View Post
      They're going to see if they've got a piece of the flop, and if not they'll fold.
      What's your definition of 'a piece of the flop'?

      Let's look at their MDF when you bet 2/3 pot:

      1 - ( 2/3 / [ 2/3 + 1 ] ) = 60%

      So now assign a BTN opening range and see how it does against that flop:

      Click image for larger version

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      Here they're got at least a pair or gutshot (what I would count as a piece of the flop) 61.51% of the time.

      It's easy to defend against your bet at the correct frequency.

      If you think they're opening wider than this, why not 3! preflop and save the rake?
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      • allin
        allin commented
        Editing a comment
        Good analysis London Imp! Don't forget we're only using this play against weak rec players, who make TONS of folding errors. Against a 2/3 pot lead they will frequently fold not only gutters, but often also bottom pair and sometimes even middle pair. Thus making their actual calling frequency far less than 60%. Over the many months I've been experimenting with this play I would estimate the folding frequency to be at least around 75%.
        Last edited by allin; 06-28-2021, 07:10 PM.

      • LondonImp
        LondonImp commented
        Editing a comment
        My issue with this mate, is that I find personally (and the anecdotal evidence I here supports this) that players make the opposite mistake to what you are describing.

        Most players underfold when they get any piece of the flop. This can be even more true live when players may get impatient after a long while without a playable hand.

      • allin
        allin commented
        Editing a comment
        I'm surprised you think that people underfold - it's not been my experience at all and JL himself is constantly saying in his videos that most players fold too much (I can quote at least four examples from my notes if interested.) Of course it depends on your image as well as which games you're playing in. Re the impatient players you mentioned I wouldn't try this against anyone who looked tilty or frustrated.

    • #4
      This is not the type of flop that you can donk lead. You want to donk lead on flops where the player will find a hard time to continue at MDF. This is a flop where your opponents will have no troubles continuing often enough.

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