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How bad am I running right now

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  • How bad am I running right now

    Attached is my current luck bell curve. It is pretty bad. Not to mention that it is actually worse because it does not take into account the times I make a straight, flush or set and lose.

  • #2
    When in a downswing, I like to just make sure I am playing fundamentally sound poker.

    1) Sometimes when I go back and do a check up on my game, I find something that I allowed to creep into my game that is a leak. This is the time when I can attribute a downswing to a bad habit instead of variance.


    2) Ensure that you are not having some hidden tilt factor due to the downswing and moving from fundamentally sound poker. This is when you are just on the bad side of variance. With your chart it seems like this is the case. Sound poker will pull you out of the downswing. However, downswings can other affects mentally that cause a player to make subtle and sometimes unnoticeable changes in their game. Sometimes it can make players call too wide or sometimes start playing too tight. Or being gun shy at the right time to pull off a bluff or the opposite, trying tooo hard and bluffing too often.

    With your knowledge and willingness to put in effort to learn, I am sure you will be able to turn it around.


    • NJpokermike36
      NJpokermike36 commented
      Editing a comment
      jjpregler like everyone else, tilt does come into play. Here is the ultimate problem with me and playing online poker. I have not run really well since I got my game in order. Once I finally figured out which hands to play, from what position, against what opponent, and how to play them, I started keeping track of all hands that I put 50BBs into the pot. Once I hit that threshold, that became the inflection point of the hand and I go back and look to see what was my equity at that moment.

      To me, this is a better way to judge than when you open for 3 BB preflop, a guy flops a set and you get stacked. The reason is because you had a chance to get away from the hand. If all the money goes in pre-flop, there is no chance for you to get away. So 50BB's is large enough to have a meaningful outcome on your session. It is also much fairer because there is an opportunity to make adjustments based on the villains actions, as opposed to saying had had AA and the villain had 77 and all the money went in on the flop, it was a bad beat.

      So far I have tracked just under 173,000 hands over the last 5 years. My equity in those hands is currently just under 57%, at the inflection point. My actually winning percentage is slightly above 44%. That 13% I am running below equity equals a little over $3800 in winnings and that is a huge difference.