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  • Overbetting

    hi all, new to the forum and I was hoping you could help me out.

    My question regards overbetting. I see it being used and hate to play against it as it puts you in tough situations. However I never find myself using it for value. The issue is if I'm trying to get called by weaker hands then overbetting will likely cause all weaker or marginal hands to fold that im really trying to get value from. I only tend to use it with draws or as a bluff. This means I'm not balanced which isn't too much of an issue now but really moving forward and to higher stakes i need to be.

    Anyone got any tips or an explanation of when to over bet with the so called nuts and why overbet.

    Thanks for taking time to read and hopefully reply.


  • #2
    From a GTO point of view, we want to bet big with our strongest hands to extract the most value. Therefore, overbetting is often the correct play to make. Bigger bets = more value.

    GTO of course assumes that our opponents are playing perfectly and will therefore call off correctly.

    In my games I find that my opponents fold far too often against overbets, and so I am intentionally unbalanced. For example, If we bet 2x pot for value, then that only needs to get called half as often as 1x pot for the same level of profit. However, in my games it is likely to be less than half as often as 1x pot bet and so overbetting for value, whilst profitable, is often simply not the most +ev play available.

    There are still times when I will overbet, for example, when I have the nuts when I'm fairly sure my opponent has 2nd or 3rd nuts. They might not raise me if I bet smaller, but they will still call pretty much any size bet that I make.

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    • Dilly
      Dilly commented
      Editing a comment
      London's last point is key for basically any game, nut flushes comfortably bomb because worse flushes call, bottom sets comfortably bomb because they unblock strong top pair, there's always situations where even the nittiest players can get stacked, don't let them lose the minimum

  • #3
    The solver over-bets when some-many of the below are true:
    • We are at relatively deep SPR
    • We have the nut advantage
    • Villain has a capped range
    • We have enough bluffs to balance our nut hands.

    Basically when we have hands that want to get all the money in, we need to bet larger to get all the money in, Villain has way fewer nut hands so our bluffs will rarely get check raised, and our range isn't only very strong hands and very decent hands, we need to be over-betting some percent of the time.

    This is all dependent on an optimal opponent who will acknowledge that we are always bluffing some percent of the time, so will always call some percent of the time. While we need to keep in mind the power of over-bets (even if we get folds a ton, a 1.2X Pot turn bet only needs to get called half as often as a .6X Pot turn bet to make the same amount,) your point about population is valid, if they always fold to over-bets we need to size our nuts down so they can get called. If they really always fold to over-bets, over-bet bluff only and value bet smaller until they adjust. But keep in mind assuming we know Villain will always or never do something is a bold position, massive adjustments based on these kinds of foundations can be dangerous if the assumption is wrong. And from my experience, if you are balanced or over-bluff with your over-bets, you will eventually get called down at some frequency and people will adjust.

    Example: We open CO 100BB deep, BB defends, flop KT2ssh, we cbet range with a significant advantage, BB calls, turn is 5d. Our range includes all the best hands here, except maybe 22, our range has plenty of spade draws, gut shots, 2X and 5X that intuitively bluffs, Villain has very few nut hands since they raise 2 pair and sets on the flop at some frequency so they have only some of these combos and a few combos of turned 2pair and sets so they're pretty capped. Our nut hands need to get all the money in and the pot is like 9BB with 90bb+ behind, clear spot for some over-betting. Let him fold all his junk that would have folded by river anyway, and put his KX TX and spades in a terrible spot against a balanced over-bet range

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    • #4
      Thanks for your time to read and give a reply. Very much appreciate your time to answer and help me out. I will look to add some over bets with some of my strong hands and hopefully will extract more value. Thanks

      Comment


      • #5
        A lot of small stakes players are like you and think that you will size up with bluffs and size down with value. You will be amazed at amount of bluff catchers that call a pot sized bet, and the amount of folds you get with a 1/4 pot bet at some tables. You always want to try to find a way to threaten your opponents whole stack when you have the nuts, and in order to get him to call, you have to bluff sometimes and get caught. If you are balanced, then he has to play perfectly for you not win money from him.

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