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What is a legitmate/good win rate at the micro stakes?

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  • What is a legitmate/good win rate at the micro stakes?

    Got back into playing poker recently and have been studying my tail off. One of the first things I did was purchase the Cash Game Master Class on this site. That course alone helped me a ton. Anyway since the masters class and various other training/studying I starting playing microstakes (10NL and 25NL) online and have been winning at what I feel like is a rate that is too good to be true. Through 8000 hands I am winning 20.27bb/100.

    So I guess my questions are, what sample size is going to show me a legitimate win rate?, Am I just running good at the moment?

  • #2
    The sample size is way too small to make any determination about how you are playing and how you are running. However, 20BB/100 is insanely high. So I suspect you are running very good. If you use PT4, you can go to the leak analysis and see how you have been running with flushes, sets and straights. I suspect all three are above average.

    100k sample size will usually give you a good idea about how your play is at a particular stake. 30k would be the absolute minimum I would look at before I could say I was playing well at a any stake level. Also if you use PT4, go through all your big hands, both the won and loss, to see if it was the right play of did you just get lucky.

    Dilly sent me a message because I asked him the same thing. This was his reply:

    crushers=8BB/100, winning reg=4BB/100 breakeven 0 obviously slight loser 2BB/100 and a big loser at 14BB/100
    Last edited by NJpokermike36; 05-03-2021, 03:42 PM.

    Comment


    • JJoseph
      JJoseph commented
      Editing a comment
      I assumed 20bb/100 was a bit ridiculous. There have definitely been some instances where my opponents have basically dumped their stacks on me...

      Im using DriveHud but Im not all that familiar with all of its capabilities for reviewing my play so I will certainly have to look into that.

  • #3
    With the small sample, I guess you can estimate you are likely a winning player, but not at that rate. With that number the best guess is that you are not a big loser at the game, but probably run between -2BB - 10BB.

    Comment


    • JJoseph
      JJoseph commented
      Editing a comment
      Since my post I lost 500bb's making a ton of 2nd best hands haha. Fought back some so through 10300 hands Im at 14.73bb/100. How many hands does one need to show a true win rate?

    • NJpokermike36
      NJpokermike36 commented
      Editing a comment
      "100k sample size will usually give you a good idea about how your play is at a particular stake. 30k would be the absolute minimum I would look at before I could say I was playing well at a any stake level. Also if you use PT4, go through all your big hands, both the won and loss, to see if it was the right play of did you just get lucky."
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