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Can you overfold MDF in this spot?

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  • Can you overfold MDF in this spot?

    I was going over a hand with someone online in a 3b pot and his opponent shoved the turn. The way that the hand played out, his entire range was a bluff catcher. The top hand in his range did not beat any of the possible value shoves the villain had in his range.

    My assumption is that when your entire range is bluff catchers and you cannot beat any of his value range, you can ignore MDF and overfold. Can anyone verify if this is correct?

  • #2
    It depends on Villain's shoving range, less so the composition of our range. If we assume competent opponents, we're often going to be in spots where our entire range/most our range doesn't beat Villain's value range.

    Any time Villain is bluffing less than they should, we should be folding more than we "should." MDF is the frequency we have to defend to prevent bluffs from automatically turning a profit, but if their range is 10% bluffs when it should be 30%, we're happy to let their 10% bluffs profit and their 90% value suffer. But even if our range is very marginal to junky, if Villain is competent or overly aggressive, we need to defend at or above MDF. If they are betting river pot size and bluffing 40% of the time, we need to defend above 50% of our range, other wise their bluffs auto-profit, and they are bluffing enough that we don't make up for it by saving when we fold to their value hands.

    The only issue is if MDF forces us to call with A high or worse, that loses to some of their bluffs, then it becomes more complicated and I don't have an answer.

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    • #3
      I think yes you can overfold. We know MDF only applies when the opponent is bluffing "enough" even if we have a hard time defining "enough." And we pretend for simplicity that all intended value bets are ahead and all intended bluffs are behind, even though both of these things can be untrue sometimes. In this case you know, because your hand is very weak, that your opponent isn't "really bluffing" as often as he thinks he is. So no, I don't think you have to defend at MDF.

      And there's a concept I don't recall seeing stated here, but which I believe is true: when your opponent is overbluffing, you don't call "more often," but rather you call "almost always." And when he's underbluffing you don't defend "less often" rather you defend "almost never." Because that's the correct adjustment to his mistake. At least until he adjusts to your adjustment.

      So fold that baby.

      Comment


      • #4
        Hand: KJs
        Position UTG+1
        55 BBs effective

        Preflop: Hero raises 2.5, MP calls, Button 3bets to 12, Hero calls, MP folds.

        (In the GTO charts this is a call, however, the button sizing is larger than GTO, so maybe this might hit the muck if ran at the 12 BBs sizing.)

        Flop: 29BBs - K Q 4 r check/ bet 7.25/ call - seems standard.

        Turn 43.5 BBs - 3 r check/shove 36.9/ hero?

        Another problem I see is that villain is very value heavy. The only normal bluff here is JT if that is in the 3bet bluff range and we block that.

        On the flop the top 3 hands were KQs/44/KJs. Since the bet was so small he would also have to call with AQ/QJs/QTs and some other smaller pairs. When I take out the bottom of the range to = MDF, I was still left with the above hands.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by jjpregler View Post
          Hand: KJs
          Position UTG+1
          55 BBs effective

          Preflop: Hero raises 2.5, MP calls, Button 3bets to 12, Hero calls, MP folds.

          (In the GTO charts this is a call, however, the button sizing is larger than GTO, so maybe this might hit the muck if ran at the 12 BBs sizing.)

          Flop: 29BBs - K Q 4 r check/ bet 7.25/ call - seems standard.

          Turn 43.5 BBs - 3 r check/shove 36.9/ hero?

          Another problem I see is that villain is very value heavy. The only normal bluff here is JT if that is in the 3bet bluff range and we block that.

          On the flop the top 3 hands were KQs/44/KJs. Since the bet was so small he would also have to call with AQ/QJs/QTs and some other smaller pairs. When I take out the bottom of the range to = MDF, I was still left with the above hands.
          If that's the hand you were talking about it's not quite what I was envisioning. I think he can bet his whole range on the flop, so he still has all of it, and you are ahead of most of it.

          On the turn, it depends what you think of him. He should not be betting worse, thinking it's value, but do you give him credit he'd never do that? He also probably should not be betting second pair type hands, turning them into a bluff, since it's better to try to realize equity at this point, but does he think so? Regardless of the answer of these two questions I think he's actually got a lot of hands that you can beat, if you think he'd bluff with them.

          So on this particular hand, we are back to...does villain bluff enough (whatever enough means)? But overall, I do think you can call here. Which is different than my generic answer was.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by jjpregler View Post
            Hand: KJs
            Position UTG+1
            55 BBs effective

            Preflop: Hero raises 2.5, MP calls, Button 3bets to 12, Hero calls, MP folds.

            (In the GTO charts this is a call, however, the button sizing is larger than GTO, so maybe this might hit the muck if ran at the 12 BBs sizing.)

            Flop: 29BBs - K Q 4 r check/ bet 7.25/ call - seems standard.

            Turn 43.5 BBs - 3 r check/shove 36.9/ hero?

            Another problem I see is that villain is very value heavy. The only normal bluff here is JT if that is in the 3bet bluff range and we block that.

            On the flop the top 3 hands were KQs/44/KJs. Since the bet was so small he would also have to call with AQ/QJs/QTs and some other smaller pairs. When I take out the bottom of the range to = MDF, I was still left with the above hands.
            KJs may be a fold not only because the size but because B is squeezing not just 3-betting our open so their range should be tighter, but it's probably a fine enough call.

            If Villain is aggressive or competent I can't imagine we fold this turn. How tight do they have to be to fold? We need ~32% equity to profitably call. If he only bets for value but that includes KT we have 29%. If they have value KJ+ and 9 combos of OESDs and gutshots we have ~32%. It's definitely close. They shouldn't have a full compliment if KQ and strong opponents are going to be shoving some creative bluffs, but I think this is probably under-bluffed, with no read I might fold but it's gross, definitely a spot we'd like to have some kind of read

            Comment


            • #7
              As JL taught me in his tournament masterclass, every hand that we use to meet the MDF requirement must have the sufficient equity to justify the call in terms of pot odds versus the opponent's range.

              We should never be calling with hands that are -ev just to meet the MDF.

              This is one of the reasons why, to an extent, we can ignore MDF from OOP as the EqR effects can drag a lot of our hands down below this required equity threshold.

              If we find ourselves in a spot where we should be meeting MDF but can't, then this may be an indicator that we have made poor decisions with our ranges earlier in the hand and left ourselves unbalanced at this point.

              Comment


              • #8
                This is what I get for Hero on the flop:


                I already have him overfolding MDF and calling everything to protect the calling range.

                This is the MDF on the turn:


                This is the range I get for villain on the flop. On this board it should be a range bet with a small sizing. Villain did size small.



                On the turn, the problem I see is he does not have enough natural bluffs


                That is all assuming his original 3bet range was balanced well. If he misses AT in the 3 bet range, he has almost no bluff candidates unless he replaces that with JT. Another thing I notice is that KJs does not have any clean outs. If he bluffs with AT and he rivers a J we lose, against his value range a K only helps against AA and QQ.

                The more I think, the more I believe he can fold here, even though it is very near the top of his range. This is really a spot where you feel sick calling, but feel just as sick having to fold.
                Last edited by jjpregler; 04-28-2021, 05:40 AM.

                Comment


                • #9
                  In a conversation with another very good player from overseas:
                  People tend to be super honest in 3bet pots. You can just fold a ton when they continue after cbet.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    The simple answer is yes we get to over fold and we just did a similar spot in the home work assignments although it went to the river.

                    https://pokercoaching.com/homework/february-2021/

                    https://jlsecrets.s3.amazonaws.com/p...-02-LDR5L7.pdf

                    Comment


                    • jjpregler
                      jjpregler commented
                      Editing a comment
                      Thanks, this is just what I was looking for. This confirms my hand analysis.
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