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what do you think about my bustout hand 2

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  • what do you think about my bustout hand 2

    note this is a freezeout

    https://upswingpoker.com/hand/?pokeit=224QClks4

  • #2
    I think it is 100% a bad call. Why would I want to put all my chips in against two people who are all in? At best your flipping and against two people you are a dog or a small favorite. You have over 20 BB left. I would not risk my tourney life with AK against two people, especially if I lose and I will be out of the tourney.

    Thanks!

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    • #3
      Not enough information. Are you near the bubble? How many players left. If it is a PS game with so many 30k stacks, you should either be at the bubble or ITM. Therefore, ICM plays a role in this.

      When I run it in pure chip EV at 100% range it is a call, but I am suspecting that this should not be run on chip EV.

      Additionally, the ranges change depending on the ICM pressure of each player. The button shoves a different range with ICM pressure than he would in a chip EV spot.

      Also any reads on SB. Would he shove 100% of his range, or is he capable of calling the top and bottom, but shoving the middle. This way he's calling the strong pairs like AA/KK/QQ but shoving middle pairs AQ/AJ type hands and maybe flatting the worst hands in his range planning to fold if you shove.
      Last edited by jjpregler; 04-18-2021, 06:52 PM.

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      • #4
        Guido You have to realize the SB is over-shoving to protect his hand. He isn't shoving with a premium pair because he would want you to call if he had AA, KK, or QQ. He does not want you coming because he doesn't want to have to fade 3 or 4 overs between the two of you.

        Thanks!

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        • #5
          I was itm already.

          I consider it this way , 3 Dollar entry, big field tournament , taking more risks hoping to chip up huge in this Situation vs 2 late Position ranges trying to Reach Top 1-3 Place

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          • #6
            NJpokermike36 but if he is overshoving his shoving range is weaker and ak competes even stronger?!

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            • #7
              This is the ICMIzer run for that hand ITM.


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              • #8
                When you the equity removing AA/KK/QQ from the range - AK does even better. If you remove the 2 hands AK never wants to see, it has to fare better than when the hands are in the range.

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                • #9
                  One variable I was concerned about was the shoving range of the button. In this spot he should have 40%. Obviously if he is shoving wider it doesn't affect our decision. How much tighter can he shove and we still have a call?

                  When I dropped it down to a 24% range AK's equity became too small to take the risk. It was still a small positive, but not enough to warrant the risk.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Guido View Post
                    NJpokermike36 but if he is overshoving his shoving range is weaker and ak competes even stronger?!
                    I don't think so. I suspect he is over-shoving with exactly the type of hand he has; middle to low pairs. I think the very worse you will see is AQs. So I don't think his range is so wide that it would make sense calling two all ins with AK, IMO.

                    Thanks!

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Even at Sunday Million final table in this Situation 1 Player called off With AK and won vs QQ and JJ a few years ago

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Guido View Post
                        Even at Sunday Million final table in this Situation 1 Player called off With AK and won vs QQ and JJ a few years ago
                        But that doesn't make it right does it? I would not call off in this situation.

                        Thanks!
                        Last edited by NJpokermike36; 04-20-2021, 01:03 PM.

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