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Equity Realization

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  • Equity Realization

    We are often told that some hands "overrealize" equity and others "underrealize."

    In particular hands that are high, suited, and connected, not only have a higher amount of equity than ones which do not have these characteristics, but also, in practice, they will be paid their equity more reliably.

    I find this intuitively likely to be correct but are there numbers on it? For example, one can use flopzilla to see an equity matrix, but that's not the whole story in the face of realization.

    I don't think this could be done "in theory" since it would depend too much on exactly how hands are played. But it could be done "in practice" by taking a large amount of data from actual games and seeing which hands do better or worse than expected and (importantly) by how much.

    Does this exist anywhere?

  • #2
    Yes, there are some statistics that can be garnered from solvers like Pio and Monker. I have a few aggregated reports on my computer, but not nearly enough to find patterns and have degree of certainty.

    In general, so far I have seen that in general, OOP usually only has 93% - 95% realized equity while in position over realizes up to about an average of 107%. Other than that, I don't have the sample size required to make any other conclusions.

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    • #3
      There are some numbers on it, but they very from spot to spot.

      Let's take A9s as an example.

      In a SRP with eff stacks 10bb-20bb BB v EP, A9s will realise 85% of its equity (under-realise)

      In a SRP with eff stacks 30bb-75bb BB v BTN, A9s will realise 103% of its equity (over-realise)

      Michael Acevedo: 'Calculating the EqR for each poker hand for every single spot is almost impossible, as it would essentially require having the solution to the entire game of poker.'

      If the man who wrote 'Modern Poker Theory' believes this, we can pretty much take it as fact.

      When it comes to EqR in game, I think it's important to just keep in my mind that hands like suited connectors (and to a greater extent, suited unconnected hands) realise equity much better deep-stacked, and big (non-nut) broadway hands do better in shallow stack situations.

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      • jjpregler
        jjpregler commented
        Editing a comment
        Yes, I think the general takeaway are 2 things, OOP you lose equity realization, and speculative hands in low SPR pots loses equity realization. For every thing that has an under realization, there is always a counter that over realizes. Without knowing numbers, I could make an educated guess that High card hands pick up the equity realization that speculative hands lose in low SPR pots.
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