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2/5 (live casino) QQ on monotone flop

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  • 2/5 (live casino) QQ on monotone flop

    I pick up QQ in UTG+2 in a 2/5 game (120 BBs) and open for $15 (too small?). I get called by the cutoff and BB.

    Flop is T76

    BB checks.

    I thought people could easily have top pair, straight draws or draws to the king- or ace-high flush, so bet 15 into the approx $45 pot (10% rake, max. $15). (Should I bet bigger or just check here?)

    A tricky pro in the cutoff raised to $65 and the BB folded. I called and the turn was 3

    I checked and the cutoff bets pot size, $175.

    I call again and river is 2

    I check and the cutoff puts me all in for my remaining $355.

    Do I call or give up here?

  • #2
    Splitting hairs on the flop, but I would have bet $20 instead of $15. He is making big bets, so I suspect he has you beat. Since you raised UTG+2 and bet the flop, he figures you have two big cards or an over pair. Unlikely you would bet an under pair on that board. The only hand which he would take this line with and not have you beat is A10 with the ace of clubs. He could very easily have two pair, a straight or a set and does not want you drawing if you have one club in your hand.

    So Yes, I am folding the river.

    Thanks!
    Last edited by NJpokermike36; 03-24-2021, 09:14 PM.

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    • #3
      I think NJpokermike's response here is right on the money. I did not even see his response and in my mind I said should have raised it to $20 and not $15. The river a fold for me right away. It looks like he was value betting you and you were just calling. Probably figured he could take you for all you got on the river. So a fold here is the best option for me.

      Comment


      • #4
        Preflop: your sizing is fine. Maybe go pot - $17 if your want to be a bit more, but I would need specific reads to want to bet more than that.

        Flop: I know this is an overpair, but this hand might just fit into your marginal holdings. You have all of the flushes and sets above the over pairs. I know you have the re-draw with the Qc, but that may already be drawing dead. When he raises to $65 this hand may be a call. But you have to determine his bluff frequency here. He is not raising with many worse made hands on this board. You have to call $50 to win $135, so he needs to be bluffing over 25% of the time here. Then you have to take into account alot of his best bluffs are Ac Xx. He gets there about 32% of the time. This might be a fold here, unless you have reads to indicate he is bluffing often enough.

        Everybody bluffs. So you just can't look at a bet and say "he might be bluffing so I have to call" but you have to ask, "how often does he bluff?" If the bluffing frequency is high enough then you can call.

        Turn: This is your decision point. When he bet more than 1/3 of the remaining effective stacks, you have to realize this is an inflection point in the hand. If you call this, you become "pot committed." Is this hand strong enough to become pot committed on this board?



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        • #5
          Thanks for the responses guys. Yeh I tend to think now that maybe I should have just folded to the flop 3bet. I didn't know the guy well enough to know his bluffing frequency, and he is making a big raise into two people who could potentially have a big hand. Also I don't think I should be risking my whole stack with a bluff-catcher. Interesting that I posted this on 2+2 and most people were saying I should be making it 4 or 5 BBs preflop - I know that JL usually says to make it 3 BBs, though Alex and Matt sometimes open for more. Re the river bet I think it was Alex F. who said that big river bluffs are very rare according to his database, so a good reason to fold after getting that far I guess.

          Comment


          • #6
            It is Ok to use a larger preflop raise size, but it needs to be standard, at least for that table(i.e. raise 4BB OOP and 3 BB IP). You just cannot raise different amounts based on the strength of your hand. I usually raise a minimum of 3 BB + 1 extra blind for each limper, in and out of position. But will adjust if I am getting too many callers or no callers.

            While it is true big river bets are rare, this is one of those unique circumstances where it would make sense. If he has A10 with the Ace of clubs, he has to bet big to get you to fold because you called all the way and he wants you to fold that over pair. Since he has been betting big all the way and you have been calling, it would be is only shot to get you to fold because he has to know that his 10 is beat.

            FYI, It doesn't change my opinion, I still think you were beat.

            Thanks!
            Last edited by NJpokermike36; 03-26-2021, 05:43 PM.

            Comment


            • #7
              Good fold NJ, he had the KcJc

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by allin View Post
                Thanks for the responses guys. Yeh I tend to think now that maybe I should have just folded to the flop 3bet. I didn't know the guy well enough to know his bluffing frequency, and he is making a big raise into two people who could potentially have a big hand. Also I don't think I should be risking my whole stack with a bluff-catcher. Interesting that I posted this on 2+2 and most people were saying I should be making it 4 or 5 BBs preflop - I know that JL usually says to make it 3 BBs, though Alex and Matt sometimes open for more. Re the river bet I think it was Alex F. who said that big river bluffs are very rare according to his database, so a good reason to fold after getting that far I guess.
                I don't go to 2+2 anymore. Not enough quality posters anymore. Not like it was a decade ago. And most of the participants are just weak falling between TAGbots and LAGbots. (Unless you read the high stakes posts).

                But anyway on raise sizing. JL's current raising recommendations are pot sized. 3x the last bet, plus whatever else is in the pot. Here that would put the raise at $17. The 4x 5x recommendations are very old fashioned to try to get more folds yada yada.

                There is a reasoning not to go above this recommendation, that very few players ever consider. Your range balance. When betting pot you are giving yourself 2:1 odds against that you have the best hand. (With 2/5 though, because of the smaller size of the SB, it is a bit over 2:1) Your opponents calling ranges are based 40% equity calls.

                If you bet 5x instead, you are betting $20 into a $7 pot now you are giving yourself almost 3:1 against. Now your value range has to tighten up tremendously to accommodate the new sizing. And if your value range shrinks so does your bluffing range.

                If you still want to remain active preflop, mathematically, the smaller raise sizes fit that style.

                Just like the push/fold charts change with the size of your shove, so should your preflop opening charts based on the size of your bet. The larger the bet, the tighter the range.

                A very brief example of the math of raise sizing

                MTT - 25/50 blinds - you are on the button.

                t150 raise. With this sizing the lowest hand in your value range has the rate to be the best hand 66% of the time. The top 19% of hands fit that value range.
                t250 raise. With this sizing the lowest hand in your value range has the rate to be the best hand 77% of the time. The top 12.5% of hands fit that value range.

                And your bluffing range size should fall into direct correlation with the size of the value range. The 5x raise size is about 67% of the range of the 3x sizing. I know I just did the button range here because that was easiest math to figure out quickly, but that math follows the rest of the table all the way back to UTG.

                Of course finding a balanced range is only the first part, but any deviation does affect your bottom line unless the players at the table are making errors that warrant that deviation.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Hi guys, I want to learn how to play poker. My friends tell me to start with the slots. Is it true?

                  Comment


                  • jjpregler
                    jjpregler commented
                    Editing a comment
                    Not at all. Poker is a game of skill. With study and practice, you can become better than most of the players.

                  • sumdimfarc
                    sumdimfarc commented
                    Editing a comment
                    98% are lifelong losers. I say pretty close.

                  • sumdimfarc
                    sumdimfarc commented
                    Editing a comment
                    you can become better than most ( in your head , due to your innate ability )

                • #10
                  It's a great flop but I always lose on the river

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