Have I missed value II ?

[Guido]

https://upswingpoker.com/hand/?pokeit=724LrQC9M

solver says

flop optimal betsize is quarter pot , i bet too big 2/3 pot

i think the board is broadway heavy and wet enough to justify betting bigger

on turn when the scary Ace comes check 100% of the time !

on the river when i hit my set but also every T gives a straight solver says i am supposed to check 66% of the time and to bet quarter pot 33% of the time , EV is the same

interesting solver chooses a blocking bet size on the scary river

thoughts ?

[LondonImp]

I think the flop bet size should depend a lot on how the board interacts with our specific opponent's range. If he is on the tighter, nittier side then I do like your sizing. If they are flatting wider preflop then we probably should go a little bit smaller.

Turn is a standard check.

The reason the solver (in my opinion) wants to check the river so frequently, is that a strong aggressive opponent (i.e. a solver) should be doing a lot of raising against you. You would probably barrel the turn with a lot of your Tx draws as the ace is effectively a good scare card. Perhaps your line caps your range a bit as you rarely have a T.

But, I think we can still go for a small value bet, roughly 33%, and be happy to over-fold if we do get raised because the population will certainly be under-bluffing that spot. We can definitely expect to get called by all 2p combos, as well as some Ax if the guy is call happy.

[Guido]

nice analysis thx i couldnt explain it better : )

[XBobLove]

While I totally agree with LondonImp, I probably adjuat with a bet on the turn this early for info and value. It gives a guide what to do in the river on these situations.

if villain had an Ace 2 pair or worse set i would have expected a bet but his in position turm check makes this situatiom polar. As it's early in small stakes, assume his tendency is under bluffing. You can bet the river small, he'll go over you of he's nutted otherwise your good with top set. Bet for value.