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Advice on a spot? 3Bet pot 40BB effective CO vs BTN microstakes MTT

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  • Advice on a spot? 3Bet pot 40BB effective CO vs BTN microstakes MTT

    Please point out anywhere in this hand I went wrong. And help me construct villain's OOP flatting range vs BTN 3bet, (I am assuming it will not be the GTO strategy since it is a random microstakes player)--- thank you in advance.

    $1.65 $600 GTD MTT middle stages. 40BB effective stacks

    Folds to CO (villain) open raise 2.2BB (villain is unknown, have not been at table long)

    Hero in Btn with JJ, 3Bets 10.2BB (sizing a little large to discourage cold calls from the big blind; could be too large?)

    CO flats. Pot ~ 22.9 BB

    Flop is Kd, Qc, 4s

    CO checks. Hero checks. (Even though CO flatting range isprobably capped, he will have hit this board a lot)

    Turn: Ks

    CO waits several seconds. Checks. Hero checks. (I am playing my hand face-up somewhat.. AK and some AQ would bet flop IP and perhaps AA would bet turn if not flop. it is likely beginning to look to my opponent like i have an underpair like 99-JJ)

    River: Qd

    CO shoves for ~30BB. Hero tank folds.

    Having narrowed my range significantly by checking behind twice, does villain turn underpairs into bluffs here? I do think his Ace-highs can go for thin value, but would it be by going for an overbet like that? The 1.5x pot size shove is polarizing, but the thing is I lose to his "bluffing" hands [unless he also is shoving underpairs] Now, looking at his value range, there's 4 combos of KQ. Should I consider the 2 combos of QJs and KJs to be in villain's range? I also have to know whether or not villain flats any AQ or AK preflop at this stack depth in order to determine how nut-heavy his range is. Of the 8 combos for AQ and 8 combos of AK, is it safe to guess villain flats all AQ and 4bets all AK? I think we are at least discounting QQ, KK and AA from villain's preflop flatting range. Where I am stuck now is constructing his bluffing range. How many suited Aces will he have? What about offsuit? Maybe his paired hands are JJ-77. But by the river, when I have checked behind twice, do his underpairs do better turned into a bluff or by giving up on the river? Since i SOMETIMES will get to the river with AQ taking this line, can villain blindly shove his whole range? Does villain think I am checking back river with my Ace-highs but folding to a jam?
    Last edited by vvaves; 02-07-2021, 09:38 PM.