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call off middle pair?

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  • call off middle pair?

    Villain is 30/22, quite aggressive, agg factor on river is 2.0
    It would seem polarized the way played so I'm in a difficult spot.
    Possibly a turn shove?
    PokerStars, $14.70 + $1.80 - Hold'em No Limit - 700/1,400 (210 ante) - 8 players

    UTG: 86,223 (62 bb)
    UTG+1: 13,021 (9 bb)
    MP: 40,783 (29 bb)
    MP+1: 103,947 (74 bb)
    CO (Hero): 21,328 (15 bb)
    BU: 137,079 (98 bb)
    SB: 17,340 (12 bb)
    BB: 52,982 (38 bb)

    Pre-Flop: (3,780) Hero is CO with 4 K
    4 players fold, Hero raises to 2,800, 2 players fold, BB calls 1,400

    Flop: (7,980) 3 3 J (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero checks

    Turn: (7,980) 4 (2 players)
    BB bets 4,789, Hero calls 4,789

    River: (17,558) 9 (2 players)
    BB bets 21,070
    Last edited by Bentley; 01-20-2021, 08:46 AM.

  • #2
    We need to be good here 31% of the time to break even, so really we want to be good about 33% of the time to give us an edge.

    On that particular flop structure against a BB I think we should be doing a large amount of checking.

    We should therefore still have a lot of pocket pairs stronger than a 4, and I'd be looking to start building my calling range (aside from JJ/44/99 which are a given) using these that have a spade to block the nuts.


    • #3
      Possibly turn shove, because you might be good on that turn? Will you be comfortable calling off non-flush river? Why check back flop again?

      @London: do you think poker is harming you?


      • Bentley
        Bentley commented
        Editing a comment
        turn shove for protection

      • LondonImp
        LondonImp commented
        Editing a comment
        Huh..? Not sure what you mean.