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Tournament Masterclass - Minimum Defense Frequency - Help with clarification please

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  • Tournament Masterclass - Minimum Defense Frequency - Help with clarification please

    Regarding the Minimum Defense Frequency Section in the Tournament Masterclass

    The first example is:

    You raise to 3 BB from UTG+1 and LJ 3-bets to 10 BB
    MDF = 1 - [(Opponents Bet)/(Opponents Bet+your raise+small blind+big blind+ante)
    MDF = 1 - [(10)/(10+3+0.5+1+1)] = 35%

    Why is numerator 10? 3bb of the 10bb bet is effectively a call. You are only facing a raise of 7bb.
    Shouldn't it be: MDF = 1 - [7/(10+3+.5+1+1) = 55%
    The weird thing is that he actually says in the video that you should be actually continuing around 55% of the time.

    All the quiz questions that go with this are also 3-bet scenarios with this pattern.
    Is this a Poker Coaching mistake? Or am I fundamentally misunderstanding something?
    If the latter, does anyone have a simple way of clarifying this so that I can understand?

  • #2
    Think about it from the opponent's perspective.

    When the action gets to them there is a total of 5.5bb in the pot.

    They then make a raise to 10bb. They are effectively risking 10bb to win a total of 15.5bb (their raise plus the amount currently in the pot). 10bb is leaving their stack in the hope of 15.5bb returning.

    So we can work out how often this needs to work as a total bluff (i.e. force a fold) in order to make a profit.

    10 / 15.5 = 65%.

    So if they force you to fold greater than 65% of the time then they are instantly profiting.

    So you need to defend with at least 35% of your range in order to prevent this from happening.

    Another way of saying this is your minimum defence frequency (in order to stop your opponent from instantly profiting) is 35%.

    Make sense?

    You say that JL goes on to say "you should be actually continuing around 55% of the time".

    The key here is that 35% is the MINIMUM defence frequency. A lot of your range will be getting the right odds and have the correct equity to continue, hence why we continue wider than MDF in some spots.
    Last edited by LondonImp; 12-14-2020, 04:53 AM.


    • jirasuonna
      jirasuonna commented
      Editing a comment
      I think that bit has finally clicked into place. It's so weird how you can look at the same information over and over, from multiple sources, but it never sticks; then one more time, slightly different, and the angels sing. Thank you! .

    • LondonImp
      LondonImp commented
      Editing a comment
      No problem mate. Feel free to keep asking questions