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is this too aggressive ?

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  • is this too aggressive ?

    https://upswingpoker.com/hand/?pokeit=324GcdLRw

    solver says

    preflop this is a close call

    going allin has almost the same EV !

    on flop 100% open check

    btw donk betting small has almost the same EV

    when villian cbets 55-60% potsize solver prefers to flat

    solver doesnt like raising at all

    but the solver is no tournament warrior : )

    on this board villian misses like 66% of the time , he most likely has 2 overcards he dont wanna go broke with !

    thoughts ?

  • #2
    Prefer a shove pre. Your logic for the Xshove is fine, but we probably have draws and over-cards that block over-pairs that would serve better as bluffs here. Especially if we think Villain will barrel is over-cards.

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    • #3
      I’ll start by saying that I’m towards the beginner stage of seriously studying poker, so I’m more than open to the possibility that my thought process is wrong. If anyone disagrees, PLEASE jump in. As I'm learning, I'm glad to get better insight on where I may be going wrong and how others approach the game. Having said that, here are my thoughts.

      The CO has 17 bbs at the start of the hand and raised to 2 bbs. If he follows the PokerCoaching.com suggested pre-flop strategy (a huge assumption, I know 😉) his range includes a mixture of raises and shoves. His raises include the top and bottom of his range, with the all-ins making up the middle part of his range. He would fold the bottom portion of his range to a pre-flop shove, and happily call off the top portion of his raising range to a pre-flop shove. I would also think that he has to be a little concerned about the SB, who has 8.5 bbs, looking for a spot to shove it in. If he follows that strategy, he’s either holding a hand that he’ll easily fold or easily call a pre-flop shove.

      Other than your play, I think there are two other possibilities in your spot: (1) shoving all-in pre-flop; or (2) check-calling the flop, and then checking or leading the turn. Let’s start with the pre-flop shove option. If you 3-bet, since you’re out of position, your raise size will probably be around 3.5 to 4 times his raise, or about 7 or 8 bbs (since he raised to 2 bbs). That’s half of the CO’s stack, and you couldn’t fold if he reraised, so you might as well shove all-in if you are going to raise. Facing a pre-flop shove, the CO will fold the weakest part of his range and call off with the best part of his range. When he calls, you are either flipping or crushed. When you shove pre-flop, you are risking a little more than 40% of your 36.8 bb stack to win a pot of 4.3 bbs if he folds. Alternatively, you could call 1 bb and see a flop. Maybe it’s my default somewhat nit-ish tendencies, but I prefer the lower variance call option pre-flop.

      The PokerCoaching.com pre-flop charts seem to disagree with my nit-ish tendencies. I’m looking at the 15 bb charts, since the effective stack is 17 bbs. When facing a RFI from middle position, the charts suggest a pre-flop shove with 66. If the raise had come from early position, the charts would suggest a call pre-flop, so I think it must be a close decision.

      The second option would be to call pre-flop, and then check-call on that flop. I prefer that option over check-jamming the flop. When you check-jam the flop, he faces an option to call 12.3 bbs to win a pot of 33 bbs. He needs 37% equity to make calling the right decision. Let’s consider what your range looks like to him. When you called pre-flop, your range was capped. It’s very unlikely that you are holding a pocket pair TT or better (although you may have only called with AA). It’s also unlikely you are holding AJ or better. If you ever 3-bet in the BB, you would have 3-bet with those hands. Now let’s consider his range. Let’s assume that his pre-flop range is roughly close to the PC charts (even if we assume that he doesn’t have an open-shove portion of the range, but is making a 2 bb raise with everything). If that’s the case, his hands include any pocket pairs 77 and better, 98s, T8s, J8s, Q8s, K8s, A8s, A7s, A8o, and A7o. Since your range is capped, on a flop of 8s2s7c, those are all easy calls in his shoes. His hands also include a wide variety of suited over-cards that will include two spades that will give him a draw to a pair higher than the flop, a flush draw, and even some gut-shot and backdoor straight draws to go with it. Any T9s also gives him an OESD, plus a draw to a pair higher than the flop. If he’s holding KsQs for example, he has a 55% chance of winning the hand if he calls your all-in. If he assumed that you were holding A8, KsQs is still a 53% chance to win. His calling range is fairly wide and includes a lot of hands that have you crushed, and some hands that have good draws to beat you.

      Rather than check-jam the flop, as I Monday-morning-QB this hand, I think the better play would be to check-call the flop and then lead out on most turns with a small 1/3 pot bet. (Yes, I realize that it’s easy to come up with alternatives when you have forever to think about the hand, you can pull up all of the pre-flop charts, run options through Equilab, and use a calculator.) If you look at typical range betting, the 8s2s7c flop is one where the CO probably shouldn’t be c-betting with air, but there’s a good chance that’s exactly what he is doing. A lot of people c-bet too frequently, and c-betting on that flop is a good indication that he may well be c-betting too often. When you call a pre-flop raise, check-call the flop, and then lead the turn, it will be apparent to the CO that you have something, and that you are not likely to fold (even though I would strongly recommend folding if he reraised all-in over your turn bet). If he was c-betting with air, he will fold to the turn bet. If he calls your turn bet, then it’s too likely that he has you beat and you are done with the hand. (Hopefully it will go check-check on the river.) When you check-call the flop and then lead the turn, I think you have a good chance to win the same amount of chips that your flop check-jam won, and risk a lot less chips in the process. There is a small chance that the turn will improve his hand to one that he would have folded on the flop, but would call the turn bet, but that isn’t all that likely.

      The typical strategy for marginal-made hands is to check-call if there's a chance that your hand is good. When your opponent is bluffing, you will win more by check-calling and allowing him to bluff when he would fold to a bet. You also risk less when you are behind. However, given the stack sizes, if the CO is inclined to keep bluffing if you were to check the turn, he may well decide to shove the turn or river. When you lead the turn, it will discourage him from bluffing. Given the stack sizes, and the fact that it looks like your opponent is c-betting too often without regard to the flop texture, I like making a small turn bet with your hand. You'll win when he has nothing, and you are done with the hand when he calls or raises.
      Last edited by Float the River; 09-22-2020, 01:20 AM.

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