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do you flat or check raise the river ?

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  • do you flat or check raise the river ?

    Hold'em No Limit - 10/20 (3 ante) - 9 players


    UTG: 1,494 (75 bb)
    UTG+1: 1,494 (75 bb)
    MP: 1,414 (71 bb)
    MP+1: 1,494 (75 bb)
    LP: 2,994 (150 bb)
    CO: 1,621 (81 bb)
    BU: 1,054 (53 bb)
    SB: 3,441 (172 bb)
    BB (Hero): 2,994 (150 bb)

    Pre-Flop: (57) Hero is BB with 8♦ 8♠
    2 players fold, MP raises to 60, 5 players fold, Hero calls 40

    Flop: (157) 7♠ 8♣ A♦ (2 players)
    Hero checks, MP bets 160, Hero calls 160

    Turn: (477) 2♠ (2 players)
    Hero checks, MP checks

    River: (477) J♦ (2 players)
    Hero bets 134, MP raises to 640, Hero raises to 2,771 (all-in), MP calls 551 (all-in)

    Total pot: 2,859

    Showdown:
    BB (Hero) shows 8♦ 8♠ (three of a kind, Eights)
    (Equity - Pre-Flop: 19%, Flop: 91%, Turn: 95%, River: 100%)

    MP shows Q♦ Q♠ (a pair of Queens)
    (Equity - Pre-Flop: 81%, Flop: 9%, Turn: 5%, River: 0%)

    BB (Hero) wins 2,859


    as you can see I decided to check raise although villian could have AA or JJ

    solver says


    preflop this is a close call , raising pot almost as profitably as flatting

    flop defo open check

    when villian bets 160 you are indifferent between calling (15%) and raising small (85%)

    as played on turn this is a check to the aggressor

    on river i made a small mistake by block betting , because checking is more profitably

    as played when villian raises my block bet to 640

    i am supposed to just call 96% of the time and to go allin only 4% of the time !

    thoughts ?

  • #2
    As I understand it, the solver solves against a GTO strategy. You don't want to play GTO at all times, you want to exploit your opponent's weaknesses. If V is going to check turn and shove over a block bet on the river? 1) He likely does not have AA or JJ and 2) It seems like you successfully exploited a weakness that this V overvalues strong pocket pairs.

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