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can i really flat this on the flop ?

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  • can i really flat this on the flop ?

    https://upswingpoker.com/hand/?pokeit=124FtUFvL

  • #2
    this is a PKO

    solver says preflop this is a raise

    on the flop this is a 100% open check

    (although betting small to medium has almost same EV but only almost)

    on the flop calling is a mistake because folding has most EV

    in game i thought i probably can only call betsizes like 800-900 but i called anyway because the villian was a huge fish and i tought if i can improve or he shows weakness on later streets i can win this hand and i have enough implied odds so i can make a minus EV call on the flop here

    when he checked back the turn i was thinking about betting small or going allin because he showed weakness

    going allin would actually be my favourite play here but this time i was not brave enough (also huge fishes dont care about calling big bets especially when this is a PKO and he covers me!)

    i really didnt want to bet small vs huge fish because i assume they are often times huge calling stations

    solver says i should have bet 25% potsize on the river , only checking has an error of 3.97 which is huge , i played at a beginner level

    damn i absoutely misplayed this hand
    Last edited by Guido; 08-11-2020, 12:33 AM.

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    • #3
      I think calling the 3-bet preflop was good, you were getting amazing odds and you were closing the action. I don't think the call on the flop was terrible. I did an equilab calculation, and even if your opponent was only 3-betting with JJ+, AQs+ and AKo, on this board you're not doing terrible when given the equity you have and the equity you need to continue based on the pot odds he laid you (See Board Equity 1 attachment). If your opponent was 3-betting with an even wider linear range, like say, 99+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+ and KQo you're close to 50/50 equity with him on this board (See Board Equity 2 attachment). I also think it is likely they will be 3-betting you with a linear range because for one, you're on the shorter stack, and two, you're UTG. Typically you want to use a linear 3-betting range when it is likely you will be called and use a polarized 3-betting range when it is somewhat likely they will fold to you.
      Tough spot there on the river, but good lay down. There was a decent chance he had an overpair to the board and you were only beating a bluff. It is kinda weird that he checked the turn...I don't know if they would do that with an overpair. But still, 17bb left is still respectable and you can still make things happen from there. How did you fair for the rest of the game?
      Attached Files
      Last edited by RangeReader; 08-11-2020, 12:24 AM.

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      • #4
        disagree with the above on all decision points. 25% river might be best

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        • #5
          hey competent and quick answer , thanks

          i am afraid i busted before the money unlucky

          this hand was really strange , i really think he had an overpair

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          • #6
            Guido No worries. Also, in my initial analysis of the situation, I believe I should have put your specific hand in equilab and compared it to the range he might be 3betting. To which I would like to say, if he is raising the tighter range, we should have gotten the heck out of there (we have 16.5% equity with KTs) and not called the flop bet. If, however, he was raising the Looser 3betting range...we should still be folding (We have 23.2% equity with KTs). Sorry I botched the initial analysis, definitely should have pit your exact hand against their range. But in a range versus range battle, we were doing okay.
            I definitely think there was a good chance he had an overpair...it is strange that he checked back the turn though, you don't have very many 77s in your range. I think it is equally possible that he bet the flop with his whole range and then when he saw the run out decided to bluff the river with ace high. It is difficult to know...overpair or ace high is my guess. Either way, going back, I think hero should have folded the flop and looked for a better spot.

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            • #7
              folding the river should be almost clear , i dont even beat Ace high

              but the flop call was the mistake to begin with , villians betsize is just too big to justify calling

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