can i avoid going broke here ?

[Guido]

i almost checked turn

i almost folded on the river

villian was a semi strong player , a reg , not a fish at all

i knew that before

i play too much wannabee gto , perhaps


https://upswingpoker.com/hand/?pokeit=724ESpUFK

[Guido]

solver says on flop this is a cbet but solver prefers 25% potsize (i bet 67% potsize giving me range and nut advatange )

i guess this is because from MP i dont have really have the nut advantage but only the range advantage

on the turn if your betsize is under 100% solver likes betting better

if your betsize were potsize then solver likes checking better

but EV wise you are indifferent between betting and checking and this is valid for all kinds of betsizes

as played after villian goes allin this is a clear call off for the solver

but with reads (unsolved) this might be a fold

toughts ?

[LondonImp]

We need to be good ~27% to break even, so let's call it 30% required to give us an edge.

It's an unfortunate spot, but if the villain is likely to play 99-JJ this way (not unlikely) as well as hands that have turned a lot of equity then I think we need to call here.

Why don't you think you have the nut advantage here? Do you not have all the sets in your opening range?