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Local Online Site- is this actually sketchy or is it real variance

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  • Local Online Site- is this actually sketchy or is it real variance

    I play on a locally run site. It’s sketchy, but I only put in money I don’t need. I’m noticing a trend. I’ve played close to 30,000 hands. Obviously I haven’t kept track of every hand, but I do keep track of bigger hands/pots, which means I’ve kept track of almost every time I’ve had AA. My win rate with AA is just under 40%. This does include preflop all ins and taking it down pre flop.

    I’m not whining about losing with AA because obviously that happens. It just seems unlikely to me that after this much volume I would be losing with AA more than 6 out of every 10 times. For comparison, KK-JJ is closer to 50% which seems a lot more reasonable.

    Just wanted to hear some less tilted thoughts on whether this is most likely volume/variance or if you’d stop playing this site like I have decided to lol.

  • #2
    I'm making the assumption that you are playing cash games?

    I'd say it's mostly variance, 30K hands sounds a lot but is not really, but I'm also thinking you might be getting a bit too married to AA when you have it. AA is the best starting hand, but in single raised pots or 3 bet pots, by the turn or the river AA becomes a single pair / marginal made hand and often a bluff catcher. You need to get a good understanding of ranges (yours and opponents) and how they interact with different board textures and run-outs - and therefore when to let go of your over-pairs. Blindly blasting off with AA or calling a shove on the turn / river is going to be costing you heeps and ruining your winrate with these hands.

    A basic example:-
    Your in the BB with AA and the CO raises. You 3 bet, and they call - fairly standard spot right.

    1. The flop comes 8hTdQd, you cbet 40% pot and they call
    Turn Ks.....what do you do? This board is now super wet and smashes your opponents 3 bet calling range.

    2. the flop comes 3d3c6s - totally different board that should miss your opponents ranges most of the time
    Last edited by Turbulence; 07-26-2020, 05:29 AM.


    • Joshmmcl
      Joshmmcl commented
      Editing a comment
      That is a fair assessment and that was absolutely an issue when I first started playing on the site. I’m happy to fold AA now that I understand ranges a whole lot better. That is very likely what the issue was. Thanks for the reply. I’m gonna take a look and see if I just had an exceptionally low win rate earlier in the year and if that’s pulling it down overall.
      Last edited by Joshmmcl; 07-27-2020, 10:32 AM. Reason: Additional comment