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AKo micro expected winrate

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  • AKo micro expected winrate


    just run over my loosing hands for almost 30k hands on nl2 and exept 22 and 88 (because loosing quads vs quads and set vs set) next hand is... AKo

    with looserate equals to -88bb/100 dealt 256 times

    Ive lost 5 BI preflop (twice vs AA and 3 flips) it just variance or smth not right with my game? Do you have some stuff how to play AK of suited?

  • #2
    Your hand sample is just too small really mate.

    If I look at the last 25k hands I've played with AQs I achieve -110bb/100 and with AQo -167/100.

    Bollocks right?

    But if I look at my database as a whole (100k+ plus, but still very small relative to what you need) AQs becomes +221bb/100 and AQo is 32bb/100. This is including the awful numbers above.

    The fact of the matter is 100k is still a relatively small sample.

    In the book 'Modern Poker Theory' the author, Michael Acevedo, states that you need a database of at least 1,000,000 hands for it to be statistically relevant.


    • #3
      this is an old but quite good beginner article

      As always consider AK as a part of your whole range and play your range not your 2 cards Ak


      • #4
        Short term results can be very skewed and 25k hands might just be a 2-3 weeks sample. At the beginning of last week I literally couldn't loose with AK, I took someting like 7-8 starting stacks (800bbs) with it in 2 sessions. Over the weekend I couldn't win with it, ran it into AA 6 times in 90mins and lost 3 flips against QQ.

        With all that said, I have noticed in some of your other posts that you are playing fit or fold with AK post flop after you 3bet, particularly when you are OOP. This will be killing your win rate. Sometimes you have to play AK post flop like a draw when you don't hit the flop. Especialy on dry flops when it's unlikely your opponent has hit anything either. You might need to fire again on the turn to get the job done.


        • #5
          yeah these sqz spots when i miss flop... i try to bet out them after you post in my threat