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Whate are reasonable went-to-show-down stats for various player types?

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  • Whate are reasonable went-to-show-down stats for various player types?

    My goal is a balanced aggression, close to GTO baseline strategy from which I can deviate quickly to exploit opponents' tendencies. I generally play live $2/$5 in regional casinos. My VPIP is 25% and about 16% of the time 16% (i.e. 2/3 of the time I voluntarily put money in the pot) I enter with a raise. I almost never open-limp but I like to call limpers in position with speculative hands especially when deep stacked (which is often).

    My went-to-showdown is about 25%, sometimes slightly north of that. According to AdvancedPokerTraining, that makes me reasonable, but a bit of a calling station: they suggest reasonable WSD stat range of 17%-25%. Should I be concerned with this, or is it consistent with my overall strategy and therefore ok? In general, what do we think reasonable WSD stats are for various strategies (TAG, LAG etc)?

    Thanks!!

  • #2
    Getting to showdown 25% of the time seems reasonable. For 6max online cash, the PartyPoker stats tracker and analysis recommends a range of 24-29.99%. Despite being rated as Pro level skill I'm getting to showdown ~31% which is a bit high and one of my 'leaks'. I've identified two reasons for this for myself 1) I don't give enough credit to my opponent for getting to the river with enough strong hands 2) I have assumed that my opponents are capable of making more bluffs on the river than they actually are (because I do myself).

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    • #3
      Cool thanks for the input. I would think wsd should connect with other aspects of your game though - like, maybe you have a tighter than usual opening range, so you connect with flops more, so you end up going to showdown more? On the other hand, you also get the opportunity to bet on the flop, turn, and river, and if you're connecting with flops more, you should be betting more, which means your opponents should fold more, which means the optimal wsd wouldn't change based on your tightness. Like how, from a GTO perspective, your won at showdown should always be as close to 50% as you can get it (in cash games), since if it's over 50% you could have bet for value more, and if it's under 50% you shouldn't have bluffed so much.

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      • #4
        Wsd more than 40 over a samplesize 100+ 9 Handed is a Classic Fisch Calling Station

        Offen Times i see 40-60 wsd

        Try to have 30-35 roughly

        If you have less than 30 You Are most likely a

        Genius

        Or You Bluff too offen

        Or you Are too nitty not gto/mdf

        Comment


        • #5
          wow so I googled this and indeed it seems Advanced Poker Training's recommendation of 20-25% wsd is very low according to most others. Guido, is your guidance based on experience, or (and?) theory? Have you seen any good attempts at a GTO wsd calculation?

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          • #6
            only Based on Expierence, wsd is a very Important stat to me on the hud

            I have also analyzed stats from strong regs where i have a lot of data, wsd included

            Perhaps i will share later

            I think 30 is very reasonable

            35 should should be too high , i need to check later
            Last edited by Guido; 05-16-2020, 03:25 AM.

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            • #7
              Hey guys i am only playing turbo mtts so my wsd is much higher the Shorter i am !!

              Deepstacked my wsd is 27 roughly

              The line on the left is wsd

              The picture starts With 500 bb

              Line 4 Is 100-150 bb

              Second last line is under 10 bb

              Last line is Summary all stacksizes
              Last edited by Guido; 05-16-2020, 03:39 AM.

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              • kkep
                kkep commented
                Editing a comment
                How do you get that stat in for tournaments? I have leak tracker I use for cash but it doesn't do tourneys.

            • #8
              kkep nice to See you i Was almost worried , how are You?

              Hm2

              Comment


              • kkep
                kkep commented
                Editing a comment
                Thanks, bro I'm fine and I hope you are too. I just recently maybe a week ago started to play again but still not like I was before this pandemic.
                I'm no longer a member here either. I won't be re-joining until I get back to work.

                Oh ok I'm running Poker Tracker and that seems to only run the leak tracker for cash games. I'm sure I can set up some sort of tournament data deep dive to come up with it.

            • #9
              Based on analysis of actual winning players (as opposed to the theoretical correct values), your WTSD stat should fall in into the following ranges:

              Low Stakes
              Full Ring: 21.7%-33.8%
              Short Handed: 21.1% - 32.8%
              Heads Up: 27.5% - 39.0%

              High Stakes
              Full Ring: 20.4% - 32.5%
              Short Handed: 23.4% - 36.3%
              Heads Up: 27% - 36.2%

              These values have all been lifted from PT4's leak tracker function.

              The ranges are wider than I would have thought, but it goes to show that there are multiple ways to successfully build a strategy.

              The higher top-end numbers for the High Stakes brackets seemed a bit strange, but I suppose this is due to the fact at the low stakes players tend to be more value heavy on the river and so over-folding is often a successful exploit.

              For what it's worth, I play low stakes short handed poker and my WTSD is 30.22 over my last ~100k hands, but this drops off slightly to 29.44 over my last ~25k as I've made a conscious effort to stop paying people off on the river (seriously, I believe this is the single biggest reason people struggle to ever leave the micros).

              Comment


              • #10
                Originally posted by LondonImp View Post
                Based on analysis of actual winning players (as opposed to the theoretical correct values), your WTSD stat should fall in into the following ranges:

                Low Stakes
                Full Ring: 21.7%-33.8%
                Short Handed: 21.1% - 32.8%
                Heads Up: 27.5% - 39.0%

                High Stakes
                Full Ring: 20.4% - 32.5%
                Short Handed: 23.4% - 36.3%
                Heads Up: 27% - 36.2%

                These values have all been lifted from PT4's leak tracker function.

                The ranges are wider than I would have thought, but it goes to show that there are multiple ways to successfully build a strategy.

                The higher top-end numbers for the High Stakes brackets seemed a bit strange, but I suppose this is due to the fact at the low stakes players tend to be more value heavy on the river and so over-folding is often a successful exploit.

                For what it's worth, I play low stakes short handed poker and my WTSD is 30.22 over my last ~100k hands, but this drops off slightly to 29.44 over my last ~25k as I've made a conscious effort to stop paying people off on the river (seriously, I believe this is the single biggest reason people struggle to ever leave the micros).
                Yep, I've been hammering away at the micros the last 3-4 weeks now, and by hammering I mean 10-12k hands a week. I think I have successfully caught one big river bet bluff. If you treat every big / overbet on the river as a value bet of the nuts I don't think you will be giving away much EV. Every overbet I've faced on the turn and actually called or got it in against has either been 'nutted' or some super draw.

                The flip side to this though, in carefully selected spots, is that you can turn this on it's head against other regs that have also learnt the pain of calling off big river bets with 'bluff' catchers. I've taken quite a few pots on the river when the board has run out scary and I think my opponent 'had' a strong hand but is now being cautious due to the board run out I just rep their fears with an overbet 1.5x normally does it.

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