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Long Term "Bad Luck" or Something Else?

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  • Long Term "Bad Luck" or Something Else?

    ACR - $16.50-$55 mostly. ~16-20 MTTs per day. First 1200 MTTs on ACR I made about an avg of 1.5 Final Tables per session/day and cashed a good %. Math on Allins seemed to make sense I was bad beat from time to time like normal.

    One day I was bad beat from every MTT that sucked.. next day happened again and then again.. I am now at 58 days where on any deep run (final 2-4 tables of 600-5K+ entries) I am "bad beat" on an all ins. Most of these I am dominating for 30-40 levels (4-6+ hours) sitting in the top 5, 10 in alot of cases but basically I will be pretty card dead and then get the AA/KK and either walked or jammed into and im losing 100% of all ins with AA/KK/AK if less than 5 tables left since 58 days ago. I am ahead pre-flop around 99% of the time. In other situations I am losing with a set of Jacks and thy have a set of Aces. I dont care if I lose or get bad beat in my fair share but at this point I am not sure its "fair". I have hear JL say this could last for maybe even 100 MTTs.. I am WAYYY beyond that.. I spent 20 hours reviewing a lot of these and they are the right calls and like I said I am ahead pre literally almost every one but it doesnt work out.. If its early in the tournament I lose some All ins with AA/KK/QQ/JJ etc but its not like this.. I can literally bet against myself at this point. I did one test I made it the final 12 and I folded AA twice in a small MTT and I would have lost both because both times someone else called and hit a flush but I made this one FT I am not counting just testing but obviously had no chips left and got 9th (I was dealt 99 first hand and ran into AA haha)

    Good example two days ago I sat in 1st for about 5 hours in a 4900 field $55.. down to 4 tables I was then in 18th.. dealt AA and jammed on by pocket 2s and they flop quads.. very next hand dealt KK and jammed on by AQ and they end with a FH im out just like that. That sums up every deep run for two months. Ive went through my hands and verified I am not losing my mind or just remembering the bad ones.

    I spend a ton of time while playing watching all the ACR streamers.. they arent losing 100% of all ins over a very long period like this.. bad session sure.. bad week sure.. but this is getting unreal. Thoughts?
    2
    Its just long term bad luck keep playing
    100.00%
    2
    Fold AA/KK if jammed on final 4 tables LOL
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    ACR Cheats
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    Something else? Add comment in post
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  • #2
    I was going to click on it is just long term bad luck keep playing but there is always a suspicion, however small that ACR could be screwing you.
    There will be a lot of people that won't believe that you are running as bad as you say. I run really bad on Pokerstars in all ins but when I checked more carefully , I found out that Yes I am running below ev but not as bad as I had thought. Still bad and enough to shatter my confidence.

    For me, it is this erosion of confidence that I feel is the most damaging consequence and this has led me to play less than optimal at times. I start thinking , I want to be the one getting it in behind and sucking out , but this doesn't end well.
    I think you have to keep going as best you can and try to play your A game as much as possible and be ready for the time that you will run good and you have to take full advantage of this. I don't get angry with all these bad beats but I do feel numb which is not nice.

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    • #3
      I am in a similar situation ive been playing a lot of MTTs on pokerBROs but im very new to online poker and mtts specifically and dominating the first 25-30 levels just to lose set over set or lucky river. At the time i flip out and go instantly on tilt and blame the game for cheating or at min having such a computer randomizer generator after seeing so many four of a kinds and royal flushes in a sitting. You gotta just keep playing it has to be variance and also try to write down the exact spots where you bust for me i noticed a major leak in my game when i would get to the bubble every time. Even today i went in coma tilt lol i won a satellite to a 75k gtd in PLO which i suck in and flipped the script and went straight to sleep at 2pm.. But in a short answer look at your leaks even if you done so already to make sure it isnt one of them and if it isn't just take a small break and play again. The thing i love about poker is it can lead to me being able to live my life in such a way that i can afford to take breaks and come back stronger. but make sure you come back you need to put in volume to get better as long as you can afford the swings.

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      • #4
        You cant underestimate the variance in large field MTTs regardless of your skill level. The thing with variance as well is that it rarely runs even, by that I mean you'll have a bunch of good things happen, then a bunch of bad things. You said that you had a bunch of good sessions early on, now you've had an extended run of fairly deep bust outs, unfortunately this is how it goes. It's not inconceivable to go +500MTTs without a decent score - then you'll probably hit 3 in a week.

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