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AKs - Call or Fold??

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  • AKs - Call or Fold??

    16 left in tournament - 8 handed - no real reads on any of the table as I've just been reseated

    Hero is 5th overall in chips (LJ)

    I have 3rd in chips on my right (UTG+1) and 1st in chips to my left (HJ)


    UTG (24bb) min raises, UTG+1 (46bb) calls, Hero (43bb) 3bets to 9bb, HJ jams 52bb everybody folds back to UTG

    UTG folds, UTG+1 now calls for his stack and its on Hero

    The cold 4bet was scary enough vs the other two big stacks on the table but, when the UTG+1 player just calls UTG open but then gets all his chips in with no need to risk anything, it looks very AA/KK trappy

    Should I be getting out of the way here or taking a real chance to chip up going to the final table?

    I don't use Pio or Monker so have no real way to work this spot out without a solver - any ideas would be greatly appreciated

    I 3bet quite big here, in position and at this stage as I was hoping to get it all in with UTG. I didn't expect the action to happen like this at all and it just seemed crazy considering the stage we were at and the stacks involved. There were 8 stacks left under 10bb

  • #2
    Are we in the money?

    What are the next couple of pay jumps?

    This information is vital in determining the correct play.


    • Simon B
      Simon B commented
      Editing a comment
      Hey buddy, we are well into the money (16/3489) The pay jumps are:
      1. 5456
      2. 3831
      3. 2470
      4. 1624
      5. 1123
      6. 770
      7. 530
      8. 341
      9-12. 265
      13-16. 203

      I've ran my equity in equilab vs 2 ranges the same (JJ+, AK) and I have 24% which means it would be a BE call at best. I am chopping with AK, flipping with JJ/QQ and crushed by AA/KK although I do have the 2 blockers.
      Pot odds say I need 24% to call (34/139.5) but my assumed ranges may be tighter than that (although I suppose they could equally be a little looser) If they are tighter I am just crushed and I guess what I'm really asking is:
      1. By passing up the call, do I give myself a better chance in future game with better spots considering my stack size or...
      2. If we're really trying to win this thing, should I be gambling with a strong hand like this to try and chip up?
      3. I know Jonathan is always saying - try not to put yourself in positions where your whole stack is at risk but, he also says we're not just trying to survive and min cash
      (I know this isn't a min cash, it was an $11 buy in but you get what I mean)

      Any thoughts or advice would be appreciated

    • LondonImp
      LondonImp commented
      Editing a comment
      Okay so we're at the business end of the tournament now. It's a very different scenario when there's 16 people left out of 32 that started, or 16 people left out of 3.5k that started.

      Without any reads on your opponents I would just be letting this go.

      With more information we could potential call, but that would be very opponent specific.

  • #3
    I am folding here as you are almost certainly up against strong hands. Easy fold in my view.


    • #4
      is this online tourney ? how much the buy in ?

      I actually think both options are not terrible. people online tend to do some trendy stuff ... I probably lean towards folding ... guess future game tips the scale.