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  • ICM Analysis

    Morning All,

    I was fortunate enough to bink a $60 live tournament yesterday for $1677 + a $700 seat to my local casino's upcoming winter main event.

    I did some analysis with ICMizer on a few spots and wanted to share them here in case any of you can benefit.

    4 handed
    1.62 million chips in play
    Payouts:
    1. $1677 + $700 seat
    2. $1039 + $700 seat
    3. $681
    4. $473

    H 87so P BB S 800k B 15/30/30
    Short stack shoves SB 108k I call
    He has A8 board bricks out

    Running 2 ICM Analysis. 1 not accounting for the seats and then one accounting for them.
    Without the seats, I can basically call any two here unless he’s the tightest guy on the planet. Even if he’s only shoving 28% we’re making $7 on a call. Break Even point is about 11%. If he’s shoving that tight calling is losing $0.77.
    Adding the seats to the prizepool doesn’t seem to change much. Break Even point is very similar. If he’s shoving 13% calling with this hand is losing $0.13.

    So basically we have to call this one unless the villain is a super nit. This was my thought in game and happy to see it confirmed.

    H 76dd P BB S 900k B 15/30/30
    Short stack shoves SB 156k I call
    He has A7 board runs out 76232

    Without the seat added, calling 76s is making $4.71 if he’s shoving 45%. Break Even point is about 25% here. If he’s shoving that tight calling is losing $0.50.
    Adding the seats to the prizepool doesn’t seem to change anything. Same break even point. Calling a 25% shoving range with 76s is losing $0.21

    This one was a lot closer. Is the average guy in a $60 live tournament shoving wider than 25%? Probably but I don't think it's impossible that a percentage of the field won't. I didn't get the impression this guy was particularly nitty.

    Heads Up

    H 77 P BTN S 860k B 20/40/40
    I open to 80k. He jams. I call.

    We can profitably jam here. Jamming 77 is making $32.9.
    However, raise calling is more profitable depending on how wide V is jamming back at us. ICMizer notes he can profitably jam 49%. If he’s doing that, we’re making $84.80 and raise calling is clearly better, but… is he jamming that wide?
    Breakeven point is about 15-16%. If V is jamming that tight we’re making between $30 and $37.4 on a call.

    I think it's very likely the average villain at these stakes is flatting some hands that make up that 49% jamming range, but I do think he's jamming wider than the 16% we need to make raise calling more profitable than just open jamming ourselves. I'd never played with this specific player before he was in his 30s and had some bluffs in him.

    He has K9dd. Board runs out J396...7! Always need some luck to win a tournament. Happy with my decisions in these spots and happy to take it down.

    Open to any feedback / thoughts if you disagree on any of the analysis too.
    Last edited by RealJPB; 01-21-2020, 10:53 AM.

  • #2
    I believe all 3 calls are very doable. In regards to the Villain shoving less than 4 blinds with A8 and then 5 blinds with A7 from the SB. I would play basically the same as you did, and do the same as the villains in that scenario.

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