Big Over Bet or Value Bet?

[kkep]

PokerStars - $2 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

gimmeeshelter (MP): 196.62 BB
tyfense6 (MP+1): 269.09 BB
youbestnotmiss (MP+2): 185.12 BB
iknewyouhadit (CO): 100 BB
eyephukturmom (BTN): 118.73 BB
premier2211 (SB): 210.17 BB
Jirey86 (BB): 100 BB
TogMaster88 (UTG): 109.13 BB
55Chins66 (UTG+1): 117.43 BB

premier2211 posts SB 0.5 BB, Jirey86 posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) gimmeeshelter has J:club: A:club:

fold, fold, gimmeeshelter raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, eyephukturmom raises to 10 BB, fold, fold, gimmeeshelter calls 7 BB

Flop: (21.5 BB, 2 players) T:heart: K:club: J:diamond:
gimmeeshelter checks, eyephukturmom checks

Turn: (21.5 BB, 2 players) J:heart:
gimmeeshelter bets 6.74 BB, eyephukturmom calls 6.74 BB

River: (34.98 BB, 2 players) J:spade:
[color=red]gimmeeshelter?

[Raddad_101213]

im inexperienced with overbetting, but i think this could be a good spot. hes not folding a K to any size

[kkep]

or AA and maybe not even a str8. Funny thing is I just watched the over-betting webinars and I still wasn't sure of the correct play.
I will be watching it again tomorrow morning. I did 2x the pot tho

[LondonImp]

Why did you bet so small on the turn? From a theoretical point of view shouldn't we be going a lot larger than this on such a high, wet board?

I know you've got a lot of history with this villain (he's in most of your hand replays it seems and it's not a name you're likely to forget) so maybe this played into it?

As played I think a 1.5x-2x pot size bet works well. I'm not convinced a straight would call, but a T would certainly be in a nasty spot. Maybe QQ too if he is playing that as a marginal made hand on the flop, although this is a tad unlikely.

[kkep]

Yup, I probably should have gone larger on the turn. If I can recall and I might be doing this to often now. I tend to bet smaller whenever I feel like there is a decent chance I can get raised. Not because I want to lose less when I get raised but bc I intend to call. Had I taken more time I would have probably realized his nut range is going to bet flop. Maybe he checks AQs to induce a turn bet from me. A set may also check a certain percentage of the time.

That said if he had 4x my 1/3 bet I would be getting the right price to call vs his nut range. KK TT AQs ATs AJs 27%(right?) equity is break even and I had 30%.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: JdThKcJh
Equity Win Tie
MP1 30.40% 24.62% 5.78% { AcJc }
BU 69.60% 63.83% 5.78% { KK, JJ-TT, AQs-ATs }

[CrazyEddie Reloaded]

I would go small .... all these people with ferocious names are tight. Anyone talking ferocious is weak tight

[kkep]

I blasted it, he mucked
https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/124tLqcqs