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How many times am I going to fold AA?

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  • How many times am I going to fold AA?

    https://play.globalpoker.com/gp/10/h...204a0001c7158d

    I think this is close, we need to be good about 34% of the time, if Villain is balanced, AA is near the top 34% of my range that is going to open BB, bet flop, call min raise, call turn. However micro opponents tend to be value heavy, and what would their bluffs even be? Bluffs raising flop are probably flush draws which got there.

  • #2
    I think you can play this hand a litte better from the start.

    First off, i think you can raise a little bigger pre flop. You raised pot which is fine enough and if in position perfect i think. But with AA OOP in these small games against players that like to see flops with any pair and any A and any suited cards, lets go fo bigger value straight away with AA. MAybe 55-60. This helps to pot control good opponent flops (where you lose the nut advantage) and allows to build a bigger pot when you maintain range/nut advantage.

    Second, given the ranges I ascribe to your opponents you have kinda lost the nut advantage (against 2 opponents combined especially) so should be betting smaller (25-30%) or even checking to pot control. not having the Ace hearts here does put nut flush draws in opponents range but also means you don't have any flush equity yourself so keeping pot small is in your interests.

    Betting half pot and getting raised min should set off some alarm bells and your stack/pot is getting low already. If you bet small or check the opponent would have to raise pretty large to get this amount in on the flop.

    Check calling turn is mandatory if the pot was smaller already. Check calling as played is fine as long as you are calling most rivers (since he looks to be setting up to put you all in on river). If you think he has many flush draws in his range then jam turn ath these sizes. You don't jam turn though because you are afraid you are already behind.

    River?

    I like a small donk lead here personally. Only a small one. I think this is the cheapest way of seeing if you are ahead and the best way of working out if you are likely behind. If the opponent shuvs all in river you can fold. (remember the pot should be much smaller on the river if played as above.)

    You still get value from the weaker parts of his range when he calls and also get to see his showdown when he calls.

    If he shows trips/ top pair/ weak pair/ weak flush, then you now have alot more info on him to use for the rest of the session.

    As played you don't have much of a donk lead size that helps (although I would still do it) and I think you have put yourself in a trickier than neccessary spot and I guess you have to call. He could have AQ, KQ, QJ which is plenty of combos, but would not be surprised to be behind to trips or silly 2 pair like Q6s Q2s 62s - all of which can easily be in villains range at these stakes. His stack size also suggests he has been running good too lol.

    I very much doubt the villain is balanced. He wont many if any bluffs. Is he overvaluing a queen. Maybe, maybe not.
    Last edited by N I V V Y; 01-20-2020, 05:00 AM.

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    • #3
      N I V V Y

      I agree with most of what you say. However hero did not raise to pot preflop. A pot sized raise would've been to 60 (3x the last bet + all other money in pot) - this amount would've worked well. So we agree on the amounts, just not the semantics. Betting 3/4 pot just gives everyone great odds to call which is where the hand starts to go wrong.

      Flop and turn play I totally agree with.

      The river lead I think is a really bad idea though. Blocker bets like this are just so transparent. You've correctly identified that the villain has little to no bluffs in his range so we shouldn't be worried about being bluffed off the pot. Villain must assume that he doesn't have a great deal of fold equity anyway considering the SPR. He is likely to check-behind with his marginal made hands in my opinion and this is a good result for us. When he shoves we just have to fold.

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      • #4
        I would raise to $1.30 preflop. My rule of thumb is 4x + 2x for each limper plus 1x for oop (that would make 11x, but I would bump up a little higher to take away set mining odds since my default is almost there).

        i would bet smaller on the flop since you are OOP, multi-way and they have the nut advantage. Probably go 1/3rd pot or just check since the ranges are probably pretty close anyway.

        I think calling the raise is ok. You are at the top of your range besides QQ. You should look at what your iso range is from BB and what hands you are bet/calling to help clear up how the rest of the hand plays out.

        on the turn, MDF is 58.9%. You would have to look at your range and see exactly where AA falls, but I am guessing you have more than 15 combos of hands that bet/call flop so AA is a call here.

        On the river, MDF is 65.6%. You gotta look at your range again. Depends on how many flush draws you have here. But, I would guess AA is low enough you could certainly fold some combos and probably all of them (especially the ones without Ah). Even if AA is a defend for MDF, the field raises 2pair+ so you can fold all AA here anyway.

        I agree with LondonImp, the blocker bet is bad. Because the field only raises 2pair+, it is way too likely you are behind and you don't need to light money on fire to find out.

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        • #5
          Thanks for all the input!

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