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Marginal made hand with big draw

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  • Marginal made hand with big draw

    5/10 at MGM National Harbor. Straddle round. Effective stack roughly $2,500.

    UTG+1 is a pro, ST (straddle) is a pretty bad reg who's mostly a station. Hero is a roughly break-even reg at 2/5 and 5/10.

    Straddle to $25. UTG+1 raises to $65 (standard raise against the straddle). Hero calls with 9h8h in the cutoff. ST calls.

    Pot: $210
    Flop: Th9d6s

    ST checks, +1 bets $125, Hero calls, ST calls. Seems like a pretty standard call for me -- middle pair, gutshot, backdoor hearts. Didn't expect ST to call.

    Pot: $585
    Turn: Jh
    Board: Th9d6s Jh

    ST checks, +1 bets $310, I call, ST calls.

    This is where I wasn't sure how to proceed here -- I picked up so much equity with the Jh that maybe I should raise? If I didn't have the pair and ST wasn't in the hand, this seems like an obvious raise spot, but I'd don't know that a raise folds out both of them, plus if I'm looking at this as a marginal made hand it seems like a call again. Really not sure what ST is calling with here.

    Pot: $1,515
    River: Td
    Board: Th9d6s Jh Td

    ST checks, +1 checks, action to me.

    At this point I have roughly $2,000 behind. Again, it seems like this would be a $1,200 bet (or even an overbet shove) if I had, say A8hh and I was against one villain, but I don't know that a bet, even a big one, is going to fold out both of them (ST could definitely have a T that's never folding), plus I do have a modicum of showdown value, although I think a 9 is good here almost never.

    I ended up checking back but I didn't like it. Happy to show results if people are interested. Appreciate thoughts, roast my line, etc.

  • #2
    I think this is fine as played. Generally JL says the marginal made hands with draws fall better into our marginal made range because of their showdown value. I agree we aren't getting many made hands to fold here by bluffing river, plus our line doesn't really sell in my opinion. Maybe I don't trap enough, but if we are rarely calling pre, calling flop, calling turn, bombing river with the nuts, our bluffs will rarely make sense.


    • chalkwhite76
      chalkwhite76 commented
      Editing a comment
      I agree that the bluff has trouble getting through, although I think the T is actually a particularly good card to bluff, given that I have a lot of tens and some T9/JT in my range. I think JTs could pretty easily call the turn planning to call down the river but then bomb when it hits the boat. That said, could be too ambitious, especially if we aren't doing it with just a naked AT/KT.

  • #3
    I think your play across all streets is fine. I don't see any reason to raise turn. You did pick up a ton of equity, but both your draws could be counterfeit with any Q other than Qh bringing in a better straight, and only a nine high flush holding. UTG1 has all the overpairs and top pair in his range, so I don't think you're folding him off much except AK or AQ, and maybe not even the heart combos of those. I think call and see what develops on river is probably the best play in the long run.
    I could see bombing river as it sort of makes sense as repping something like QT, where you have top pair flop. middle pair with a draw on turn and then get there on river.
    With UTGs description and range, you probably can get a fold.
    But, against ST, someone you describe as a station, are you going to blow them off a Jack? Would also depend on if you think ST is capable of pulling a check-raise on river if he is actually holding the ten. If not, and you can range him at single pair and/or busted draw, I think you'd have to knuckle down and bet big. $1200 may do it. I feel like if you go any closer to pot you probably just have to jam.

    I'd be curious to see result of the hand once some other folks have a chance to chime in.


    • chalkwhite76
      chalkwhite76 commented
      Editing a comment
      I agree with this analysis. That's why it was so annoying for ST to keep hanging in there -- I think it's a pretty clear call turn/bomb all rivers spot if we're heads up.

      It checked through, UTG +1 had AA (with Ah), both me and ST mucked. I'm thinking ST probably had something like QJ (I could see suited or offsuit). In this particularly case I do think an overbet shove gets them both to fold (if the hands were reversed I think ST never folds AA but the pro would be capable of laying it down) but a range that contains any T, KQ, and a small number of sets makes it too risky a play IMO.

  • #4
    I would have mucked on the turn. We need about 28-29% equity to continue (we have a player to act behind us) and
    it's unlikely we get to showdown without calling another bet.

    The Q may or may not make us the best hand. So how many outs do we have?

    9 to the flush 3 to the nut straight and I would say only the Qh that give us the flush so 12 outs gives us 24%. Now which of those
    draws are going to get us paid on the river? Are we going to get called when we make our flush? If not it's an easy fold. A non heart 7 probably
    earns us some chips on the river if the V's have a hand they can call with. How about the Q? IDK UTG1 has all of the AK so I don't think I would
    bet or call if the non Qh peels and they bet large.

    As played I check back too. We are beating all the small pocket pairs and all the missed draws. We are only losing to exactly Jx combos and QQ KK AA
    if they ever slow down with those combinations.

    That said I don't play those stakes and my game is likely to weak to be successful so take this with a large grain of salt.
    Last edited by kkep; 01-19-2020, 10:11 AM.


    • chalkwhite76
      chalkwhite76 commented
      Editing a comment
      I think this is fair, although I discount some AK combos from +1 when he bets turn. He was pretty cautious as a rule, and I don't think he's betting half pot into two players with AK when the J should smash a lot of our call/call range.

      I put together a rough range for him in equilab when he bets the river, here: 99+,66,AQs-ATs,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,AQo-ATo,KTo+,QJo (I can't figure out how to post photos in replies). Against that range, I've got a surprising 41% equity, which I think makes calling his bet a pretty clear call in a vaccuum, although ST still being in the hand makes it much dicier. When I give ST that same range minus JJ+ (since that would 3! pre) we end up having roughly even equities between the three of us.

      I think on the river, you're right that my showdown value should be my reason to check back the river. UTG +1 had AA (with Ah), both me and ST mucked. I'm thinking ST probably had something like QJ (I could see suited or offsuit).

      Appreciate the response!

    • kkep
      kkep commented
      Editing a comment
      Makes sense that he wouldn't have very many AK other than AhKh which would be super bad for us but it is only 1 combo and that's how it goes sometimes. You have to make a new comment to upload photos. In other words it can't be a reply to a comment if that makes sense?
      Last edited by kkep; 01-19-2020, 01:17 PM.