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  • Wrong fold?

    Help me out here

    1/3 NLHE $6 button straddle UTG+2
    UTG (doesn't play many hands) raises $20
    I call HU ($50)
    Kc5d6d
    UTG $30
    I call ($110)
    7c
    UTG $75
    Hero?

  • #2
    We're playing $400 effective

    Comment


    • #3
      What's your hand

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by thereitis View Post
        What's your hand
        whoops! You tell me actually it was 8c8h

        Comment


        • #5
          I think it's a pretty clear call with the open-ender and some showdown value. Assuming you brick and UTG bets again it's an easy river fold, and if you hit your straight (or set) you can confidently shove over the river bet -- this feels like AA or AK from a tight passive guy who's never folding premiums.

          Comment


          • kkep
            kkep commented
            Editing a comment
            If I thought my 8's were never good I would fold. You need about 32% equity to call the way I see it and you have about 20%.
            I suppose your stack depths come into play. If you each had around $425 behind after you make the call and you believe he
            will never ever fold AA AK KQ set of Kings when you complete your straight that MIGHT be enough to float.

            You would lose $75/80% of the time so $6000/100 hands and win $350/20% $7000/100 - I'm not positive that is the correct
            way to figure that out but I think it's close enough

            Saying that if this is the range you believe he had why did you call the flop?

          • kkep
            kkep commented
            Editing a comment
            You actually have a bit more equity than that using the range you gave him

            http://www.pokerstrategy.com
            Board: 6d5dKc7c
            Equity Win Tie
            UTG+1 76.84% 76.84% 0.00% { JJ+, AKs, KQs, AdQd, AKo }
            H 23.16% 23.16% 0.00% { 8h8c }

            leaving $295 behind after we call
            So lose $75/77% $5775/100 and win $295/23% or $6785/1000

            we might not even need that much for this to be considered a profitable play. if you each had a pot sized bet remaining $260 that would still scratch out a profit.
            BUT you have to be almost certain he can't let of his hand when an 8 9 or 4 hits and probably any diamond.

            Conversely if you think he will often make big hero folds then you need to think about some bluff exploits. You are basically giving him 1 nut flush draw combination
            so you can call drawing to the straight and pot the river on a diamond if you think he will almost always fold to the flush.

            That gives you 7 outs to the best hand and 9 outs to a bluff 32% which in my mind is enough to float vs a player that I don't think bets his draws flop and turn and will fold when the most obvious draw comes in but will likely pay our set and the str8 here at least a fair portion of the time. I think that is reasonably play.

          • Mkaufmann
            Mkaufmann commented
            Editing a comment
            I didn't think my 8's were good here - he definitely had range advantage - if he was any other player I would have more than likely called to see the river. And considering this was a home game I did the dirty deed of asking for the river and a 4 hit......

        • #6
          Are you the straddle or UTG2?

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          • #7
            Originally posted by kkep View Post
            Are you the straddle or UTG2?
            I'm UTG+2.

            Comment


            • kkep
              kkep commented
              Editing a comment
              Well I play close to the ranges supplied here and 88 is in my calling range. But if I broaden my range a decent amount meaning I have some extra Kx in my range I'm not sure if we should call with 88 and start folding 99 TT JJ or not. I can't open Equilab right now bc I'm playing online. I suspect calling with 88 is better than calling 99-JJ tho

            • Mkaufmann
              Mkaufmann commented
              Editing a comment
              Could I 3! jam the turn? Is that profitable?

          • #8
            kkep "I can't open Equilab right now bc I'm playing online"

            Distractions distractions... Tut tut tut

            Comment


            • kkep
              kkep commented
              Editing a comment
              I think this help's me stick to my ranges and my game plan. When I stare at the tables hour after hour (I played almost 1000 hands yesterday, mostly 1 table) I tend to get a bit splashy. But when I keep myself preoccupied, the screen pops up, I glance at the action, my position and make my play based on the ranges I want to be playing at that table.

              To be clear if I'm at a table where I don't know a few of the players I pay close attention so I can get some notes on them when I'm not in the hand. I hate to be the one paying for the information
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