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Bet Turn here?

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  • Bet Turn here?

    I was play 1/2 tonight in a VERY loose game.

    I came across this hand
    H:KsTs...P: SB 200 effective
    3 limps LAG raises 7 from BTN I 25 +2 call HJ call

    F: Qc9s4d
    I 40 HJ call

    T: Th
    HERO?

  • #2
    I think KTss is fine to have in your SB 3! range as a bluff, but once V calls the flop C-bet, you should be looking to get to showdown as cheaply as possible. Check/Call a reasonable bet. You've got a clear marginal hand with a 4 out draw to the nuts. V can have a lot of Q or better here on the turn.

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    • #3
      Once I pair my T there I'm checking

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      • #4
        This is an interesting situation that happens a lot. It's often correct to check the turn now that you've made a pair. I would typically check call the turn and decide on the river. If multitabling and unable to pay attention to any individual hand, it would be the default play I'd make.

        The problem with the T is your hand is strong enough to check call the turn, but it just may lose too high a % of the time by showdown. So even though the default play would be to check your marginal hand, it's not clear to me that it is the most winning play. I think if the turn was a K, I would definitely check and the hand is clearly strong enough to win a decent % of the time by river.

        What's really important here is for you to come up with a range of hands villain has on the turn. Then figure out which hands can call a bet on the turn and river. The flush and straight draws will often have to fold to the river.

        If you actually put villain on a range and did the analysis, you might find that triple barreling is far more profitable than any other play, even though you would be turning your made hand into a bluff.

        Comment


        • thereitis
          thereitis commented
          Editing a comment
          kkep - I think you are right about a lot of what you said... mainly how there are very few better hands will fold by the river. The better hands that fold by the river that immediately come to mind are JJ, AT, and some Qx. I think on such a connected board, some Qx will definitely fold by the river. On top of that I think some hands like TJ, J9 are behind, will call the turn and fold on the river. I'm sure you'll have some under pairs as well that will get stubborn and won't fold but would also never bet if checked to.

          I think one thing I missed is that this board has no flush draws. This eliminates a large category of hands that villains could be calling with that are behind.

          I originally said the default play I'd do is to check call. But I like to play devil's advocate and at at least try to verify why the default play is also the right play. Although I'm not willing to do a more thorough analysis, my guess is that triple barrel would be worse than checking turn now that I look at the actual board more carefully. I think if you change the flop slightly and change the suits, it might turn a situation like this into one that is more profitable to triple barrel.

        • kkep
          kkep commented
          Editing a comment
          I like to read about all the other options, it opens my mind to new concepts. I'm not even claiming to know if I'm right or wrong. I will say vs certain players 3 barrels will work and get some Qx JJ etc to fold. Then we have the calling stations...so it's important to have an idea what type of player we are up against.

          That said IDK what a very loose player means here. I run into a ton of loose players pre flop that play well post flop while others are loose pre flop and stations post flop.
          Last edited by kkep; 01-18-2020, 10:00 AM.

        • jamtay317
          jamtay317 commented
          Editing a comment
          kkep, when I say very loose, I mean he can 3 bet any 2 cards some of the time. now, this particular player does seem to be more passive on turn and river, but I also would not call him a station.

      • #5
        I know not the point, but why not go to ~$30 OOP with limps in there?

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        • jamtay317
          jamtay317 commented
          Editing a comment
          Well, that is a good point, I may get some more people to fold when I 3bet but I think I just tossed a green chip out and said raise.

      • #6
        I favor betting . I just don't favor writing an essay.. give him credit
        Last edited by CrazyEddie Reloaded; 01-18-2020, 01:44 AM.

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        • #7
          I did check, he bet 50, I called. Now, the river came and it was an Ad. I personly feel that favors my range over his, however, I'm interested to see how everyone plays this river?

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          • kkep
            kkep commented
            Editing a comment
            I would check again and I agree that he isn't going to have very many Ax combos

        • #8
          I prefer checking. Turning the pair gives you a decent amount of showdown value to the point that you do not need to bluff. While I agree that this specific marginal made hand is not too strong, it is good enough to check/call. When your draw also has a marginal made hand that can easily check/call, that is often the best line. If it completely lacks showdown value, betting is usually better.

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