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Call or Fold Top Pair on Flop

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  • Call or Fold Top Pair on Flop

    PokerStars - 125/250 Ante 30 NL - Holdem - 8 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    Chonk88 (MP+1): 19.9 BB
    GruGrux41 (CO): 27.53 BB
    Hazzcanpoker83 (BTN): 67.17 BB
    ActionDave35 (SB): 17.1 BB
    gimmeeshelter (BB): 46.09 BB
    Element523 (UTG): 32.72 BB
    PrimoDynasty (UTG+1): 34.16 BB
    joepoker715 (MP): 36.18 BB

    8 players post ante of 0.12 BB, ActionDave35 posts SB 0.5 BB, gimmeeshelter posts BB 1 BB

    Pre Flop: (pot: 2.46 BB) gimmeeshelter has J:diamond: K:diamond:

    fold, fold, joepoker715 calls 1 BB, Chonk88 calls 1 BB, GruGrux41 calls 1 BB, fold, ActionDave35 calls 0.5 BB, gimmeeshelter checks

    Flop: (5.96 BB, 5 players) 8:spade: J:heart: 9:heart:
    ActionDave35 checks, gimmeeshelter checks, joepoker715 checks, Chonk88 bets 4 BB, GruGrux41 calls 4 BB, fold, Hero?


  • #2
    I would fold. Yes, you have top pair good kicker, but the other players have committed about 25% and 20% of their stacks amd you will be out of position. I would jam before I would just call.

    I like squeezing preflop as the best option. KJs is strong and they all showed weakness. That is 6bb of dead money I would want to pick up. Maybe raise it up to 9bb.

    Comment


    • kkep
      kkep commented
      Editing a comment
      Squeezing may or may not be the right play IDK but i don't like it from the BB with 48BB in a tourney. I would have probably squeezed from the SB tho.

    • thereitis
      thereitis commented
      Editing a comment
      I would have considered raising here as well. It's not even a squeeze. It is a bunch of limps and you are raising. Given stack sizes and that almost any large raise, e.g, raise to 10bb prices you in to call from most of the players, I would probably just shove and put maximum pressure on everybody else. The only person you are really worried about having a strong hand is joepoker715 and he limped pre so I would discount the strength of his hand.

      At most you are risking ~30bb to win 6, but the chance you are getting called has to be very low. It sounds like a super aggressive spazzy play but I'm pretty sure that's what I'd do in game. If villain limps with 30% of hands and calls with 5% the fold rate is super high. It all comes down to what range you put villain's limping range as.

    • 1Peter510
      1Peter510 commented
      Editing a comment
      Couple things to consider. A raise to 9bb risks 8bb to win 6, so as a pure bluff needs to only work 57% of the time but probably works at least 65% (if any of them will call with 10% of their limp range). Even when called, it is likely you will be heads up where you can pretty happily get all in with top pair or a straight or flush draw.

      I would squeeze with any suited ace, suited broadways, and maybe any offsuit ace.

  • #3
    Is this single table SnG? I don't play much online, so I'm not exactly sure what tournament set-up I'm looking at. ICM considerations?

    I'm with 1Peter that I would squeeze here preflop. KJss is a great hand for it.

    I disagree on the flop. You have top pair best kicker (would anyone have limped AJ pre?), and backdoor straightening opportunities. I call and evaluate turn.
    I would think that if Gru had 2 pair plus they would have just looked to get it in on the flop with the shorter stack of Chonk. I'd be a little concerned about Chonk, but if turn came a non-heart I probably check/call if Chonk jams and Gru folds and there is no ICM consideration, unless you have reason to believe Chonk is only jamming nut hands.

    Comment


    • kkep
      kkep commented
      Editing a comment
      $100 buy in MTT

    • 1Peter510
      1Peter510 commented
      Editing a comment
      My thinking on folding the flop is that anyone could have a straight, 2 pair or set already. Add to that how we don't want to see any heart, 7, 8, 9, T, Q, A (28 cards = 60% of the time we fold the turn). So, 60% of the time at least we are calling 4bb to fold. Really, there are only 4 turn cards we can continue on (J or K) and could still be behind. So 8.5% of the time we can reluctantly continue realizing we could be against a boat or straight with our trips or 2pair and still have to fade a heart plus some other cards. The other 91.5% of the time we just donated 4bb to one of the other players.

      It has taken a while, but I am.learning to think ahead and listen to when the players tell me I am beat and this screamed that top pair was beat and was folding on the turn anyway.

  • #4
    It felt really nitty but I did fold. Had Gru mucked I think I have to call tho but I still wouldn't be feeling good...
    The thing is I don't think I'm ever folding top pair in the HW Assignments but they aren't usually multi-way either.
    We're kinda on our own figuring some of this stuff out.

    https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/524tFT24a

    Comment


    • 1Peter510
      1Peter510 commented
      Editing a comment
      Because Gru called is why I said fold. I agree, he folds then I would be more inclined to call amd call down.

      Rule of thumb, winning hand multi-way is 2pair+.....
      Last edited by 1Peter510; 01-18-2020, 02:10 AM.

  • #5
    I did a quick EV analysis. If you shove preflop and joepoker715 calls your shove 38% of the time, you break even. My guess is that your shove is successful a super high % of the time.. like you're getting called only 20% of the time. If you're only getting called 20% of the time, the shove makes you 3bb.

    Assumptions I made were that you are getting called by a top 5% hand. KdJd has 33% equity vs a top 5% hand. Obviously if you change assumptions the results change dramatically

    Comment


    • 1Peter510
      1Peter510 commented
      Editing a comment
      I would stick with raising to 9 or 10bb. Then reevaluate if someone shoved. My thought would be if there was a shove and call, I could get out of the hand rather than risking almost my whole stack.

    • kkep
      kkep commented
      Editing a comment
      This is really interesting. I'm the type of player that will grind down to 8-12BB most of the time. There are spots I'm comfortable squeezing with maybe 25BB. That said I know there are spots we are supposed to or at least can get it all in even deeper. If I'm going to get better at tournaments this is something I need to start taking a closer look at.
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