Turn Bet Sizing

[kkep]

I'll save you all the trouble. The pot is 29.74BB and I have 46.41BB
yeah yeah yeah I should have topped off before I got this low but I didn't
so here we are....

side note 1 or 2 hands earlier I bluffed off about 90BB but I've probably played enough hands with Chin for him/her to know I'm not a complete maniac.
at least if they pay attention.

PokerStars - $2 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

eyephukturmom (BB): 192.54 BB
MDeals (UTG): 116.14 BB
gimmeeshelter (UTG+1): 57.65 BB
FR8BROKER13 (MP): 154.88 BB
Bro_Mouzone_215 (MP+1): 234.92 BB
55Chins66 (MP+2): 114.2 BB
Admiral Overbet (CO): 126.7 BB
seawolff89 (BTN): 179.65 BB
cbh4e (SB): 113.45 BB

cbh4e posts SB 0.5 BB, eyephukturmom posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) gimmeeshelter has A:club: J:club:

fold, gimmeeshelter raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, 55Chins66 calls 3 BB, fold, seawolff89 calls 3 BB, cbh4e calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop: (13 BB, 4 players) 2:diamond: 9:heart: J:spade:
cbh4e checks, gimmeeshelter bets 8.24 BB, 55Chins66 calls 8.24 BB, fold, fold

Turn: (29.47 BB, 2 players) 4:heart:
[color=red]gimmeeshelter ?

[1Peter510]

Top pair, top kicker is good enough for me when 50bb deep to start, so I would bet like 14bb and jam the river depending on what hits. I would call if he jammed over my turn bet.

If you don't want to call the jam, then I say check and call down. But, realize more than half the deck is cards you don't like (8,9,T,Q,K), so you do want to charge to see the river.

All that said, I probably bet 4bb on the flop rather 8bb, then 7bb on turn, so I could bet 12bb on river out of 43bb remaining.

[LondonImp]

Exactly what I would've said. You've just said it a bit better.

On a fairly dry board multiway we just don't need to go any bigger than 1/3 pot on the flop.

[AJH914]

FYI there is a setting in Stars to auto top off if you want to use that. Much easier than doing it manually.

[thereitis]

If the hand was heads up I would be fine with betting smaller like 1/3 pot on the flop.

But in multiway pots and especially 4way, my flop betting range is going to be way stronger than heads up. So I'm going to bet much bigger as well because a) I'm betting a stronger range and b) I want to thin the field. Against 4 people there are way too many cards that are not good for me on the turn. So I'm going to protect my hand a lot more with a bigger bet. I'd probably bet 2/3 to 3/4 pot.

On the turn, I'm always betting. Typically if you were deeper stacked, my bet size would be to set up a river shove that's roughly 3/4 pot or so. But it's a little awkward given stack sizes. I guess once it's heads up I'd bet 15bb on the turn and shove for 30bb on the river. Something like that.

Edited: I asked around and people told me that my thinking in this post is wrong. Bet smaller in multiway pots and bet less frequently.

[1Peter510]

Being multiway is probably the strongest reason to bet small. More players means more chance someone has a hand stronger than a pair. You really want to bet small and risk less. Plus, multiway pots usually take 2pair+ to win. You bet big and get 2 callers, your top pair is probably not good anymore.

[thereitis]

Helpful to hear that feedback on betting smaller multi-way. People I've asked have told me they agree with what you said.

[kkep]

I've been working on my flop and turn aggression so I wasn't shore if this was spot most of you would just go with on the turn or not.


Normally in a spot like this (or similar) I would continue value betting like $24 (12BB) to set up a river jam.
But the turn adds some draws that could be good for both players. meaning I have a decent amount
of bluffs but I know that I probably have the best hand.

I'm more aware now then ever before that players at these stakes call off incorrectly with their draws
and also have a hard time folding top pair when a lot of draws are available for us.

Sometimes their draws will get there which is fine whether or not we bet for value or make a polar bet.
In this case a K came off which would have probably killed the action but there were many action killers
and I wouldn't be folding on the river anyway so we would end up only getting more value whenever they
bluff and we still would lose sometimes.

The V needs around 42% (I think?) equity to call and the range I gave him as 22%. His exact hand has 5%.
Lets give him a nice combo draw like QhTh 41%

OTOH we are drawing dead to sets but we aren't concerned with those and we are in bad shape vs 2pr
like J9 but there are only a couple of those.

I think by just getting it in here is ideal because we will for sure realize our full equity.

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/324tB6gtU

[LondonImp]

I'm surprised to see villain make such a wild call. Wouldn't have expected to see that at 200NL which has the reputation of being really tough.

Do you experience a lot of that?

[kkep]

I was surprised too. I think it's still OK tho? My thinking is with the over bet we have far less bluffs. I need to look at Jaffes Over Betting Webinar because I'm flying totally blind. But for now I believe in that exact spot the V needs to defend with around 58% of his range. Since we are short stacked I think it's ok to consider TPTK a premium hand.

So with the over bet my range would look something like this, bluffing with about 16% of combinations. And the V's range that may call the flop - I gave him 1/2 the sets of J and 9's. And some random combos that would be outside of our charts like some AQo KQo AJo some extra pair combos some extra suited Ax etc. 1 combo each of A9s K9s Q9s J9s... Also maybe hands like 87s 98s 88 didn't call so lets just say the V got to the turn with roughly 65 combinations instead of the 72 in the range below.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 2d9hJs4h
Equity Win Tie
UTG+1 79.49% 78.90% 0.59% { JJ+, 99, AJs, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AhTh, QhTh }
MP3 20.51% 19.92% 0.59% { TT, 88, JdJh, JdJs, JdJc, 9h9s, 9h9c, 9s9c, AQs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, Ad9d, Ks9s, Qc9c, Jd9d, AsQd, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AhJs, AhJc, AsJh, AsJc, KdQh, KdQs, KdQc, KsQh }

Now he needs to find roughly 37 of the (65) combos to call with. Is that correct MDF%?

Board: 2d9hJs4h
Equity Win Tie
UTG+1 70.38% 69.81% 0.57% { JJ+, 99, AJs, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AhTh, QhTh }
MP3 29.62% 29.05% 0.57% { JdJh, JdJs, JdJc, TdTs, TdTc, TsTc, 9h9s, 9h9c, 9s9c, AJs, KJs, QJs, JTs, T9s, AhQh, KhQh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, Ad9d, Ks9s, Qc9c, Jd9d, AhJs, AhJc, AsJh, AsJc }

I found 27 combos I would call with and I'm still in bad shape 32% equity vs the range I gave myself and 35% vs my exact hand. .

BTW As9s unblocks my flush and str8 draws. The V did use his entire time bank so I believe he was considering that.

His stats over 200 hands 29/13/6 so maybe a bit loose pre-flop but over all I think he's better than the average player I've been running into on this site playing 1/2.
I'm also sure he saw me bluff enough to know its not always going to be the nuts and as I stated I don't usually, like never make that play on the turn unless I only have like around a pot sized bet left. So it may or may not have appeared more bluffy and less value...

In fact I think I can actually have a few more bluffs than I gave myself here. That said I wouldn't be c-betting hands like Ah4h Ah5h etc on that flop multi-way so I may struggle to find more bluffs, 8h7h would fit in. I'm going to the Webinar now to learn just how wrong I am about all of this

At the end of the day I think I put him in a tough spot and I think he probably made the correct call or it's at least close vs a player like myself albeit the worst hand he probably shows up with.

[kkep]

Well this is a bit disappointing. I asked JL during the HW Webinar yesterday if he would consider discussing turn over bets in the future.
He said JJ already did a Webinar on that. I was a bit surprised I missed it. Well in fact it's river over bets so not exactly the same thing.

Turn over bets is a concept I was totally unaware of yet apparently it's been a thing for about a year now. At least with the top players in
the world. It came up while I was watching the Party Poker Millions which was the first I heard of it. Now I want to know more...

[thereitis]

I asked around and I did get the feedback that when playing multiway pots you will typically bet smaller % of the pot AND you will typically bet less frequently as well. For example on the flop, you might cbet sizes as big as 120-150% of pot when you are heads up. But in multi-way pots, your big bet size should be closer to half pot.

[kkep]

Yes I was aware of that. In this exact spot tho (right or wrong) when I bet flop I was planning to jam a lot of cards on the turn.

[CrazyEddie Reloaded]

who did u ask ? I bet smaller HU , bigger multiway... I guess it depends on the board

[kkep]

CrazyEddie Reloaded Well he works for PC dot Com so my guess he could ask just about any of the pros....