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How many diamond draws should he have?

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  • How many diamond draws should he have?

    When villain leads flop, I assume we're against overpairs, sets, and diamond draws, maybe some ATs. Calling down was the plan and then he overbets river when the diamonds get there.

    I think it's really close here, we block a lot of his diamond draws so he doesn't make the flush as often as I thought he might in game. There's also not a huge amount of sets, and we have a chunk of overpairs beat. It being microstakes also makes it hard without reliable history on villain, some might only be betting sets here, others could be doing this with AT and better.

    Ultimately I think I made a bad fold, we need to be good about 60% of the time here, I think if a call is bad it's barely bad, and if the fold is bad it's probably really bad, we're basically at the top of our range.

  • #2
    Villain should have maybe 5 combos of flush draws, if they even lead with them.

    You need to defend with 41.7% of your range. You have at most like 9 combos of flushes if you don't raise with any earlier in the hand. Best guess on your range by the river, AA puts you calling with 41% of your range.

    Typically a bet-bet-bet line is strong, but the down bet on the turn is weird. Plus, it is really hard to range someone that donk bets. You have to have seen them donk bet before to have an idea how to respond.

    So, in these situations I would default to being unexploitable. I think you should call with AA, but I don't think you should beat yourself up for folding. I think folding is fine, I think calling is fine. I would lean toward a call here, but I also hear assasinato giving me that coach tone of why invest when you don't know what is going on (so I think your fold is fine).