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Tough Flop decision.

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  • Tough Flop decision.

    Effective Stack: 63.61bb

    Villain: LJ
    Hero: CO Hand: AsQs

    Preflop:
    Fold, Fold, Fold, LJ:Limp, Fold, CO:Raise 4.5bb, Fold, Fold, Fold, LJ:Calls

    Flop 9d, 8d, Ac
    LJ: check, CO: bets 7bb, LJ: raises 24bb, CO:?

    Little background on the Villain. They has been tabled once when they 3 barreled a marginal hand. They min raised, 3-bet, 22 from the BB against 2 players, HJ and But. They did win a big hand 3 barreling KK. I don't think they understand very well where they are in a hand. Seems to think any pair is a good hand. They likes to limp and has folded to preflop raises a couple of times.

    What do you think I should do on flop on his x/r?

  • #2
    Against a player with that description I think you have an easy call (unless he’s really bad and will call a jam with AJ/AT etc).
    Can’t fold since he could be overvaluing a worse hand.
    Last edited by RealJPB; 01-15-2020, 08:09 PM.

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    • #3
      Stack size is problematic here.
      I probably like a down bet on the flop to something like 3.5BB as it's a pretty wet board and V can have a lot of draws and potential two pair hands that will check-raise and put us in a tricky spot.

      As played, I think most players are opening 99 and 88, so I think you can discount most sets from V's range. That leaves two pair combos, which you block some of, straight draws (QT, JT, 67, 57), flush draws and combo draws, and over-valued top pairs. By V description, it sounds like you can give him all the 89o as well as suited, but also a lot of Ax. With Ad out there he could have all the nut flush draws A2-A7.
      You are behind all the two pairs, and the OESF draws, and slightly ahead everything else.
      I feel like with SPR considerations, and the strong draws V could have here that it's actually pretty close. If you call, you have a bit more than a half pot sized bet left and not a lot of cards that are going to help you on the turn. If you 3! jam, you're probably only getting called by better and in bad shape.

      I think this is a place to find a fold, at least in live poker. I'm not as well versed in online considerations with the heavier bluffing frequency as I understand it.

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