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Jam flop?/Call river?

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  • Jam flop?/Call river?

    25nl zone just over 100bb effective

    I make it .75 with A10 of spades on the button.
    BB 3bets to 2.35
    I call

    Flop: Ad-Ks-3s
    BB bets 2.28. I call. Considered getting it all in right then since I know I have equity against anything but ultimately flatted to keep his bluffs in.
    Turn: 2d. He bets 4.48 and I call.
    River: 2c. Final board is Ad-Ks-3s-2d-2c
    BB sizes up to 16.60 which is enough to put me all in. I make the fold. It just isn’t often enough that someone turns jacks or queens into a bluff, and I’m not even beating any value hands, just chopping.

    What do do you think about this one? Would you have done anything differently at any point?

  • #2
    I would have played it exactly how you did. Think about villains most likely hands he is doing this with that you beat.
    * Ace with worst kicker. They probably slow down at some point in the hand.
    * Under pairs. Unlikely to bet flop and turn. Really unlikely to bet river.
    * Draws... I could see hands like QsJs and QsTs taking this line. But that's not a ton of combos.

    The last factor is you have the As. It's a bad card for you to hold. You want villain to be betting flop turn and river with hands like As4s as5s As7s etc. But since you have it, it's more likely villain does not have a flush draw. So the truth is that it's probably better to call with Ah9h than it is to call with AsTs .


    • #3
      We only lose to 9 combos here.

      I think we chop a lot and do beat a lot.

      Hard to say when not in game, but I probably call here.


      • #4
        That’s why I wonder if jamming flop makes sense. If he has a set of Kings or AK so be it, we still get there pretty often (often enough?), we don’t have to guess on the turn/river, and we also make sure we get a full double because villain can’t check-fold when the flush comes in. Still not sure which way is better. Thanks for the feedback


        • #5
          No I really do not like jamming on the flop here.

          We certainly are not value betting because when the villain calls, I'd say we are behind >90% of the time.

          We are not really bluffing because what better hands do we expect to fold? Maybe AJ, but I think AA, KK, AK, AQ, and maybe A3 (if he bluffs with this pre) will all snap you off and you'll be stacked.

          When we do get called we have roughly 33% equity but this is unlikely to be enough to offset our losses.

          We have a marginal made hand with a good amount of showdown value so let's play it that way.

          Are you doing the 30 day challenge by the way? This situation (marginal made + draw) is literally covered on the very first day


          • #6
            I’d have flatted flop and called river. Just too few combos you lose to (14 if he 3bets 33 and A3s). Does he has 7 bluff combos? Or combos that are trying to fold a chop?

            Some players might not but I think I’d make him prove it.


              Editing a comment
              Well done JPB. You would have chopped the pot against villains ace6 offsuit