Live MTT - Thin Value?

[RealJPB]

HPT $350, $200k Guaranteed. We've made day 2 and are well in the money. ~45 players left, payouts pretty flat: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EODr7fyX...jpg&name=large

Average stack is ~500k.

H AhTs P BTN S 405k B 10/20/20
Open to 40k SB calls straightforward BB calls
Flop Th5h5d bb donks 60k I call SB folds
Turn 7h he checks I check back
River 4c he checks

Are you value betting river?

[Guido]

Yes always , you only get raised like 1 time out of 15

When he Checks twice you have him in Bad shape almost always meaning most often here he should have a T or 66-99

I would bet 35-40 percent potsize

[LondonImp]

Yeah this reminds me of something GodsBigToe said recently whereby an opponent checking on two consecutive streets is almost always a sign of weakness.

If he was not a straightforward player I would be leaning towards a bigger size bet to discourage a c/r bluff, but here about 1/3 pot seems about right to target his weak Tx or middle pocket pairs.

[GodsBigToe]

yup. I dont think trips and pairs JJ+ start checking on turn. And if they do, when you check the turn they are likely going to bet river since you checked turn. I would bet river for value 40% pot or so.

[RealJPB]

Glad to hear I didn’t completely butcher this. I opted to go a little smaller and bet 75k. BB snapped with 9h5x and I was left with a short stack. 😭

[Guido]

then villian was a real fish checking twice with a nut Hand oop and then just calling on river

[jamtay317]

Yes, I'm going for thin value here. You think that you would have heard more from him if he had a 5.