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Live MTT - Thin Value?

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  • Live MTT - Thin Value?

    HPT $350, $200k Guaranteed. We've made day 2 and are well in the money. ~45 players left, payouts pretty flat:

    Average stack is ~500k.

    H AhTs P BTN S 405k B 10/20/20
    Open to 40k SB calls straightforward BB calls
    Flop Th5h5d bb donks 60k I call SB folds
    Turn 7h he checks I check back
    River 4c he checks

    Are you value betting river?
    Last edited by RealJPB; 01-14-2020, 12:07 AM.

  • #2
    Yes always , you only get raised like 1 time out of 15

    When he Checks twice you have him in Bad shape almost always meaning most often here he should have a T or 66-99

    I would bet 35-40 percent potsize


    • #3
      Yeah this reminds me of something GodsBigToe said recently whereby an opponent checking on two consecutive streets is almost always a sign of weakness.

      If he was not a straightforward player I would be leaning towards a bigger size bet to discourage a c/r bluff, but here about 1/3 pot seems about right to target his weak Tx or middle pocket pairs.


      • #4
        yup. I dont think trips and pairs JJ+ start checking on turn. And if they do, when you check the turn they are likely going to bet river since you checked turn. I would bet river for value 40% pot or so.


        • #5
          Glad to hear I didn’t completely butcher this. I opted to go a little smaller and bet 75k. BB snapped with 9h5x and I was left with a short stack. 😭


          • Guido
            Guido commented
            Editing a comment
            then villian was a real fish checking twice with a nut Hand oop and then just calling on river

        • #6
          Yes, I'm going for thin value here. You think that you would have heard more from him if he had a 5.