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Massive satellite blunder or plain unlucky?

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  • Massive satellite blunder or plain unlucky?

    I realise there are a different set of rules when it comes to playing satellites. And I think I may have totally ignored those rules in this particular hand.

    7 players left and 5 get a seat at a tournament in Madrid. I am sat in 3rd place.

    On the BB facing an utg min raise. Should I really be folding this hand for 2k with 7k in the pot at the moment?

    Click image for larger version

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  • #2
    With suited connectors you really need 20:1 implied odds to make a profitable call.

    Here you are calling 2k to win a total of 33k. So you're only getting 16.5:1.

    This should be a fold in my opinion regardless of the structure.

    The following points only make this more of a fold:

    - Your suited connector type hand is actually a one-gapper hand (worse)
    - You are out of position (harder to realise equity)
    - You are in a satellite almost on the bubble with a very healthy chipstack (you should be playing incredibly tight)

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    • #3
      In a satty, I would be folding pretty much every handt. There are 3 stacks at 10 bbs or less. I would sit back and grab a beer while coasting to my ticket at this point.

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      • #4
        I totally agree. I had my Pokercoaching quiz head on which made this a 100% auto call. Sadly I didn't have my satellite head on.

        Still a pretty cruel runout, but lesson learned.

        Click image for larger version

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        • #5
          what did you do instead ? blunder or unlucky

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          • CrazyEddie Reloaded
            CrazyEddie Reloaded commented
            Editing a comment
            if you already got the ticket , unnecessary risk. But you have not. It is not guaranteed if you fold ..

        • #6
          I would fold here every time unless perhaps it is a hyper turbo but it is not

          You are already in a comfortable Position, let the 4 shorter stacks fight for the Ticket, let the very big stacks call their pushes off

          As a Medium stack the worst thing you can do is fighting for pots for no good reason in this time of a satty

          Remember the only goal is a Ticket, not accumulating most Chips possible and vs strong utg 14 bb Range you put yourself in an awkward Position for no good reason
          Last edited by Guido; 01-13-2020, 12:06 PM.

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          • #7
            All noted thanks.

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            • #8
              that it ? what did you do instead ? 4 stacks shorter than you ...but you are by no means guaranteed a ticket. Anybody doubles up .. ok, it will take 2 , then you be the short stack.


              Game of chicken

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              • #9
                There is no chance I fold this to a 2x open - its an automatic defend with the chip stacks on the table. The real question lies in how the hand played postflop, IMO. Can you describe the betting action for us, street by street?

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                • #10
                  Originally posted by 1Warlock View Post
                  There is no chance I fold this to a 2x open - its an automatic defend with the chip stacks on the table. The real question lies in how the hand played postflop, IMO. Can you describe the betting action for us, street by street?

                  Well I must admit at the time, it seemed like the easiest call pre-flop.

                  If you look at the image reply above (yesterday 12:49pm) you can see the full hand played out. Obviously it went, check flop and V C-bet. Turn gave us the flush and it all went in. I can't see any other scenario at that point. I am not folding the flush, clearly. But apparently I should.

                  So if there was a mistake made, then it is calling pre-flop. Because I don't see the point in calling then folding to the flush draw and then folding the flush.

                  Comment


                  • 1Warlock
                    1Warlock commented
                    Editing a comment
                    The static picture does not give the betting action street by street. How large was the c-bet on the flop? Did you lead-shove the turn or x/r all-in? This is a difficult spot for sure but I don't think everything can be chalked up to the preflop call. You may have been able to get away at some point or minimize the damage to your stack. The river pairing should have put the brakes on but if you were all-in on the turn, that becomes a moot point. At all times in the hand, the non-spade A on the board would have had me cautious, only drawing to the 3rd nuts on the flop and then 2nd on the turn (if I got there). I'd be far happier seeing the As on the board here.
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