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AK blunder

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  • AK blunder

    Was playing a live daily in philly. It was a 55 dollar buy in. I was playing and running well. Blinds are at 1200 / 800 with BB ante and I have around 53k in the BB with AKo. Very Loose kid makes it 3500 and a 60 year old man makes it 26000. The old man has played fairly tight all day but over has over bet all day. the kid looks like he's gonna fold. my stack and the old mans are even. I put him QQ and say it and the dealer tells me to shut up, lol. I tank and end up shoving it all in and he does have QQ and im out. Now i know he always has a pair there and i know its a fold but my question is, Is it ever a shove or call. A call only leaves me a half pot bet behind and I'm not happy with my decision. thoughts?

  • #2
    So give him a very tight range with AKo, AKs, AA, KK, QQ, JJ. According to equilab, AKo is 40% against this range. The pot is 2000 + 3500 +26000 = 31.5K. You are putting in 53k to win a pot of 111.5K. Pot odds are 47.5% you need to find a fold here. Once half his stack is in play, he is not folding, even with JJ.


    • #3
      I see a few things here that should be discussed. First you are multiway so you need to understand that a LAG kid raising from EP has alot of As and Ks in his range. Second you shouldn't put a player on a specific hand like QQ. You should think he has QQ+, AKs and so on. Third even if old man shows you QQ and your "Flipping" with him, your tournament life is on the line in a multiway pot. So now you're probably not "Flipping" with him. You're now behind.

      I think you should fold here.


      • #4
        You have to shove as you can't just call bc you will never see turn and river unless you hit the flop anyway.

        I'm pretty sure your talking about Harrah's Chester so the blinds will be going up to 1000/2000. if that's the
        case and you're near the end of your current level I don't think going with with AK is horrible. It's at least
        close...Your seeing maybe 12 hands per level so it ain't like you got a lot of time to look for better spots


        • #5
          Is this the Rivers Saturday morning tourney? If so how is that? Their weeknight tourneys regularly go past 1 and I can't do that so Saturday is my only shot.


          • #6
            I agree with all the replies above.
            1) If you assume villains range is QQ+ and AK, then AK is a fold.
            2) Don't ever put somebody on a single hand. Especially one as specific as QQ. It's actually easier to put somebody on AA if it's the most passive player you've ever played with and then you see them 4bet shove. But people will play QQ the same as KK or JJ or AK so put somebody on a range not a hand.
            3) I would rank your choices as Fold is best. Raise all in is second best. Call is the worst option.
            4) If you assume the villains range is JJ-AA and AQ+, then AK wins about 50% of the time. So it would be profitable but you probably still avoid this spot because you need to commit about 47% of the pot and you only have about 50% equity. You can find much more profitable spots.

            I think what may be helpful is to also understand when you should be going all in with AK. The analysis changes significantly once you've committed more of your chips in the pot.

            Blinds: 800/1200/1200. BTN opens to 3,500. SB calls 3,500.
            You're in BB with AK and you have 45,000. I would probably 3bet to around 14,000. I want to 3bet fairly large since I want a fold and I'm out of position. I would debate shoving but it's too big a % of my stack. The problem when you shove is you only get called by better. I assume that I get called by some players with AK,QQ+ but I will never get called by worse than AK. When you 3bet to 14k, you've only put in 1/3 of your stack and so you could theoretically fold still. For example, I would make the same bet with TT+, AQ, KQs, and I'll throw in some bluffs. Maybe an A5s, maybe hands like KTs occasionally. A lot of these hands fold to a shove. I'm bluffing in this spot because it's 2 wide ranges because it's a button open and SB call.

            So I 3bet to 14,000 and the BTN shoves all in and has me covered. I don't love calling 4bet all ins. But my default would be to call the shove unless I'm against somebody super tight.
            Pot is 3,200(blinds) + 3,500(raise) + 3,500(call) + 46,000(myraise) + 51,500(BTN shove) = 75,700
            41,000 to call. So if you call, the % of the total pot you are putting in is 41,000 / ( 75,700 + 41,000 ) = 35%.

            Against most players, AK is going to win far more than 35% of the time. There's going to be some players who think I'm stealing their button raise and so will reshove hands like AQs some % of the time. So I'm going to call this bet against everybody but the tightest players and expect to be flipping the majority of the time.

            It's okay to flip for your tournament life when you are putting in 1/3 of the pot.

            Hope that helps.


            • kkep
              kkep commented
              Editing a comment
              I think you miss read the hand, or I did...H has 53K in the BB, Bu opened to 3500 SB raised to 26,000 out of about a stack of 53,000 as well.

              It's pretty much fold or rip it in

            • thereitis
              thereitis commented
              Editing a comment
              kkep - You may have misread my comment. I think fold is probably the best option. I say that at the top in #3 above. I agree that fold or shove is probably best. I typically would never call with AK for half my stack but if I did, it would be with no intention of folding post flop.

              The second part of my post was a hypothetical example explaining why in some spots calling a shove with AK makes a lot of sense and in other spots it's marginal. You can take in factors like position, stack sizes, opponents tendencies, etc. But in the end you use all that information to answer 2 questions. 1) what pot odds am I getting. 2) what % of the time do I think I win. And with that information you decide whether you call or fold.

          • #7
            Put your opponent on a range, not on a specific hand. As played, I would tend to fold, assuming you think the old man's range is actually QQ+ and AK. If it is even a bit wider though, it is probably ideal to get in, especially if he will fold sometimes.