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Can we Donk the River?

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  • Can we Donk the River?

    Did I miss a raise on the turn or was staying cautious correct?
    I hate not getting his stack here...

    https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/924toerI6

  • #2
    I could go either way here on the turn. I think the flat is fine if you intend to lead most non-heart rivers. Both V's flop and turn bets are pretty small, and while V's range can have all the straights and flushes, I don't see it with the sizing. I would expect slightly bigger on both streets trying to go for a full double. It looks to me like a naked single pair or pair+draw playing safe. If you have history with the V that makes you believe this is a line he would take when trapping with a bigger hand, then you could make an exploitative move to just get to showdown as cheaply as possible, otherwise I think you want to get more money in the pot somehow. You could either click it back turn or lead river. For stacks, I think you have to raise turn and be OK with V jamming and showing up with the goods occasionally.
    As played, you're hand is pretty disguised given that you didn't 4bet pre. Once you flat the turn, I think you can bet something like $50-60 on the river and get a crying call.
    I don't think you're getting his stack after the turn, but you probably could have extracted a little more with a river lead.

    Comment


    • #3
      3 hearts on flop , cautious is not how I would put it . But u seem to be doing well even before this hand, either game is soft or u doing something right. Why fix anything


      IF you lead on river , he might rip it on you ... maybe that's why u didn't raise ?




      -----

      didn't see the full house wonder if the board got better and better or worse and worse for u
      Last edited by CrazyEddie Reloaded; 01-11-2020, 01:01 AM.

      Comment


      • #4
        I have analyzed the spot with snowie , on the river when donking snowie prefers 25% potsize (see picture1)

        but checking has more EV than betting small (see picture1)

        as for the turn snowie prefers betting 25% Potsize over checking in the first place (see picture2)

        as played on the turn snowie prefers check calling 92% of the time and check raising 8% of the time to 50% potsize (pictue3)

        you played the hand well but on the turn you should have taken over the lead by betting 25% potsize as the Ace turn favors the utg+1 range a lot

        Comment


        • kkep
          kkep commented
          Editing a comment
          Interesting because that is exactly what I thought. I figured if I bet small the V will be happy to call with all of his flushes, str8s and some pairs. But if I check that gives them the opportunity to bet larger than my *blocker* type bet with their strong hands and keep their bluffs in.

          And obviously I was uncertain about how to play the turn....
          Last edited by kkep; 01-11-2020, 08:00 AM.

      • #5
        Why didn't you 4bet preflop here mate?

        You've raised UTG+1 and the guy has 3bet you anyway (200NL on stars is tough so he's not going to have a stupid hand here) so clearly the villain really likes his hand.

        If you had 4bet then the SPR would've been a lot smaller and therefore a lot easier to stack off if desired.

        As played though, I think a river donk would've worked nicely but I wouldn't know what size would be best. I'd possibly lean towards an overbet to try and target the flushes/straights in his range.

        Comment


        • Guido
          Guido commented
          Editing a comment
          interestingly enough snowie says here you should bet with your whole range 25% potsize on river as the default and this has an EV of 60.12 , but going allin has an EV of 72.16 but you should only do it 8 percent of the time,

        • LondonImp
          LondonImp commented
          Editing a comment
          Does that mean shoving with entire range 8% of the time? Or just shoving with this exact hand 8% of the time?

      • #6
        ok london is right preflop you should have 4 bet 2 times the pot (i forgot to analyze this) see picture

        Comment


        • jamtay317
          jamtay317 commented
          Editing a comment
          I dont hate a call preflop, I like the call to keep the bluffs in. I agree that you may want to do a little bit of both.

      • #7
        it tells you to donk bet turn 25% pot .. but what if raised, what if called , what of the rivers that could come ? then what ? oh, just keep betting 25% pot with AAA

        doesn't take a computer to tell you that . should bet 25% with whole range ? Let's see u do that , that's spewing
        Last edited by CrazyEddie Reloaded; 01-11-2020, 04:35 AM.

        Comment


        • #8
          see what kkep should do on turn when he is first to act with other parts of his range


          (most of the time checking but with Ac Kc and Ac Qc kkep should almost bet as often as kkep should check )

          those gutters with 2 overs but no flush draw profit a lot from villian folding immediately

          Comment


          • kkep
            kkep commented
            Editing a comment
            We can't have the Ac....endboss - I like it haha

        • #9
          I'm going to run this in Pio, I think I personaly like a lead on the river, maybe something like $40 you're hoping he shoves over top of you here.

          I'll start off with these ranges.
          I'm assuming that you're going with full ring 100BB charts I have AA, KK, AK @ 50%

          your range:



          Their range: the 3beting range in the charts



          $182 effective stack on the flop. and a starting pot of 43
          I'm going to give 30%,80% bets for you and him on Flop and turn 60,125% on the river and 30%,80% donk on the turn and river. 3x raise sizes

          Pio does have you donking the river. with the range that you said in the comment,

          Click image for larger version  Name:	Capture.JPG Views:	1 Size:	194.2 KB ID:	30786
          Last edited by jamtay317; 01-11-2020, 08:13 AM.

          Comment


          • kkep
            kkep commented
            Editing a comment
            I don't have his stats handy but I played with him enough by now to know without referencing his numbers.

            12/10/6 almost 400 hands


            Thanks J
            Last edited by kkep; 01-12-2020, 07:09 AM.

          • kkep
            kkep commented
            Editing a comment
            wow it really likes bluffing with hands like 66 88 99 QJ KJ I don't know how I feel about that....how did we get to the river with 66? I don't completely understand PIO. I stopped messing with it many months ago.

          • Joseph
            Joseph commented
            Editing a comment
            kkep, you say

            "Also this player has no bluffing range from MP but his value range might be a bit to wide. I put him on TT+ AQs+ AQ+ and maybe AJs"

            All the more reason to bet the river

        • #10
          I would be cautious on the turn and would just call as I don't want to raise and get 3 bet. Bet the river, you have the nuts. about 80 to $90.

          Comment


          • #11
            I expected to get some grief for not 4-betting pre flop. I just wanted to mix it up there. I'm starting to get a deep enough history with most of the players in this game now.


            This V very well could have had a worse hand too like JJ AQ (no bluffing range pre-flop with this guy tho from MP) that just folds to my 4-bet if its always going to be QQ+

            And to be perfectly honest it is always one of those hands. This game is to soft to be 4-bet bluffing except vs a very narrow group of players that will actually have a 3-bet bluffing range.

            So left with that my only alternative to try and have some balance (as I see it) is to just smooth call every so often with the very top of my range QQ+ AKs. I probably do that somewhere between 5 - 10%.

            Sigh now I have to go through my hand history to see exactly what that number is....

            Hindsight I should probably be choosing spots where I'm in position to smooth call rather than when I'm out of position tho.

            Comment


            • #12
              LondonImp it is meant to be shoving with this exact hand 8% of the time

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