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Do we ever fold AKs on final table?

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  • Do we ever fold AKs on final table?

    So the payouts are roughly

    1st 3000$
    2nd 2000$
    3rd 1500$
    4th 1000$

    Over the last 2 hands I have raised to 2.5x pre. I feel like the chipleader is trying to get me to fold and this look weak..
    I dont know if I would have called w AQs? maybe 99+ and AK is the right range to call? or is that too tight?

    PokerStars - 50000/100000 Ante 12500 NL - Holdem - 4 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    Hero (CO): 28.79 BB
    BTN: 25.86 BB
    SB: 57.35 BB
    BB: 14.3 BB

    4 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

    Pre Flop: (pot: 2 BB) Hero has A:club: K:club:

    Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, SB raises to 57.23 BB and is all-in, fold, Hero calls 26.17 BB and is all-in

    Flop: (58.83 BB, 2 players) Q:heart: T:spade: 3:heart:

    Turn: (58.83 BB, 2 players) 8:diamond:

    River: (58.83 BB, 2 players) 8:spade:

    SB shows 6:diamond: 6:spade: (Two Pair, Eights and Sixes)
    (Pre 52%, Flop 60%, Turn 77%)
    Hero shows A:club: K:club: (One Pair, Eights)
    (Pre 48%, Flop 40%, Turn 23%)
    SB wins 58.83 BB

  • #2
    A really nasty spot.

    It's a disaster to bust with a short stack on the table, but conversely a double up will give you ~2x the chips of 2nd/3rd place and 4x the chips of 4th place so you'd be in with a really strong shot of 1st place...

    I'm at work right now so don't have equilab here to run some ranges and do the necessary calculations but my gut feeling would be to call it off here. What stats do we have on villain?

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    • #3
      Nasty for sure - stats on villain: VPIP 28 - PFR 16 - Total AGG Factor 1 - 3Bet Pre 2..

      It really feels like he ran into the bottom of my calling range - but like you say, if we win this flip we are in a good spot to take it down. I did not see him raise the larger stacks all in like this before this hand. It felt like he was getting tired of my aggression but it could perhaps also be scared QQ+ wanting to maintain the chiplead? I have seen that before and he didn't seem like the best player out there. Maybe this makes it more of a fold too? ICM in pokertracker says call - but this hand haunts me..

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      • #4
        Is that a 3bet of 2%? How many hands is this over? Clearly it must be at least 50 to be able to get 2% (right?) and so this figure is starting to become reliable.

        This guy seems fairly loose passive judging by the stacks and your description so I'd be leaning towards a fold. I wouldn't be happy about it (and not sure I could actually fold in game!) but it does sound like their would be better opportunities for us.

        Also, from what I've learned from previous discussions on this forum is that we really want to be the one shoving in these spots, not calling it off.

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        • #5
          well it looks like the 3bet stat was actualy 1 at the time - not totally sure how PT4 works but it is 1 or 2 in 150 hands.. good point about not being the one who calls too..

          Comment


          • #6
            At first, this looks spewy by the three-bettor, jamming for effective stacks of 26bb, but a normal three-bet prices him in to call a shove by either the BB or you.

            As to the tournament situation, if I were the short stack with 28bb I would be looking to get it in here and have no problem calling off.

            On the basis of the stats shown, while Villain seems loose-passive, this type of shove seems to be a hand which is moderately strong but afraid of seeing a flop, as with Villain's hand, or perhaps as noted above, a monster in the hands of someone who likely had one of those outdrawn early in his career and wants to cash out his equity. Doesn't matter if he costs himself a tonne by playing scared poker the rest of his career.

            Far as calling off goes, if I have a read on someone I will go with it, as in another thread where I called off A9s vs a SB jam in a WSOP event. The more fool I.

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