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Pot Odds And Equity

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  • Pot Odds And Equity

    If you’re getting 3 to 1 pot odds does that mean you need 25% equity against opponents range to break even? If the answer is no, how do you figure this out?

  • #2
    No, if you're getting 3:1 pot odds you need to get 33% equity to break even. and how you figure that out you divide 1/3 = 33.3% equity.

    If you're getting 5:2 pot odds you need 2/5 = 40% equity.

    If you're gett 8:1 you need about 13%

    If I were you I'd look into MDF. Minimum Defense Frequency.

    this will help you know when you need to call.

    MDF = 1 - ( raise/ (raise + any aditional mony in pot))

    so for example, if you're facing a $5 into a pot of $10 you're MDF = 1-(5/(5+10)) = 66%. So what this means is that you need to defend 66% of your range.
    Last edited by jamtay317; 12-02-2019, 05:29 PM.

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    • Joseph
      Joseph commented
      Editing a comment
      I think you are wrong jamtay. 3:1 pot odds, you need 25% equity
      5:2 pot odds, you need 28% equity

    • 1Peter510
      1Peter510 commented
      Editing a comment
      3:1 is like saying 3 losses to 1 win. So to convert 3:1 to a percentage, you would divide 1 by 4.

  • #3
    Yes Bounty hunter, I think you are right.
    I am not clever enough to explain it in a concise manner but i will tell you what I do.

    Example 200 in the pot. villain bets 100. pot is now 300 and 100 for you to call.

    Method 1 Add what is in the pot to the amount you have to call

    This is 300 + 100 = 400
    Divide 100 by 400 = 0.25.
    I think you multiply 0.25 by 100 and you get 25%

    Method 2 200 in pot, villain bets 100. Pot is now 300 and 100 for you to call. This is 3:1. Add 1 to this figure 3+1 =4

    Divide 100 by 4 = 25%


    There is a quick handy guide you can use.

    Calling a bet

    Calling 1/2 pot bet , you need 25% equity

    Calling 2/3 pot bet, you need 28% equity

    Calling 3/4 pot bet, you need 30% equity

    calling pot size bet you need 33% equity
    Last edited by Joseph; 12-03-2019, 05:13 AM.

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    • #4
      There's lots of ways to approach this, and they all look very similar but if you mix them up you will end up getting confused and making mistakes in the calculations.

      It looks from your example that you like using ratios so that's what I'll explain below:


      Your pot odds are 3:1. To work out what break even is we can think of it in terms of number of occurrences. Add the 2 numbers together to find out the number of occurrences, the number on the left of the colon is the number of times when we will lose and the number on the right are the times we win.

      So with 3:1 we know if the event was to happen 4 times (3 + 1) we would need to win 1 of those 4 times to break even. We can then do the times we need to win (1) divided by the total (4) to work out the frequency we need to win to call in percentage terms (equity needed) so 1/4 = 25%.


      EDIT: I'm going to steal the examples given by Joseph at the bottom of his post to show this working in practice:

      Opponent bets 1/2 pot so we get odds of 3:1 = 1/(3+1) = 25%
      Opponent bets 2/3 pot so we get odds of 5:2 = 2/(5+2) = 28%
      Opponent bets 3/4 pot so we get odds of 7:3 = 3/(7+3) = 30%
      Opponent bets pot so we get odds of 2:1 = 1/(2+1) = 33%


      One last thing just to be clear. To convert a bet in terms of a fraction of the pot into odds in a ratio format we add both sides of the fraction together and this forms the left side of the ratio, the top of the fraction then becomes the right side of the ratio. For example:

      Opponent bets 2/3 pot. 2+3 = 5. So we know we've got odds of 5:2. We divide the right side of the ratio by the sum of both sides to get the equity required to call (for a breakeven call) which is 2 / ( 5 + 2 ) = 28%.

      Hope that's useful.
      Last edited by LondonImp; 12-03-2019, 06:37 AM.

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      • #5
        MDF = to defend -% = % equity? IE: 66% = defend, -100% = 33% equity? did read this right? (We divide the right side of the ratio by the sum of both sides) that's why i kept getting it wrong i thought it was the other way around not the left #.
        is pot odds is determined by amount of bet into the pot? or after the bet is added to the pot? then calculate pot odds?

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        • 1Peter510
          1Peter510 commented
          Editing a comment
          Mdf and equity are 2 different things....

          If villain bets 100 into a 200 pot:

          mdf = 66% (200 pot ÷ 300 pot w/ villain bet)

          Break even equity = 25% (100 call ÷ 400 that will be in pot)

      • #6
        MDF= 1-(villain bet/(pot+villain bet))
        % Bluff has to work to auto-profit=bet/(bet+pot)

        If you're getting 3:1, you need to be good 25% of the time to break even. Easy way to do the math is just 1/(1+3), think about it like this if there's 500 in the pot on the river, and villain bets 250, you're getting 3:1-- if 25% of the time you win 750, but 75% of the time you lose 250, you break even.... .25*750-.75*250=0.

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