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Good Spot To Overbet?

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  • Good Spot To Overbet?

    Playing a $1/$1 6 handed home game yesterday. Just to get this out of the way, I understand this is a bad open. There's some history with 32 in this home game so I'm only opening it for the lulz.

    H 32o P HJ S $200 B $1/$1

    I open over a $2 straddle. BN calls and the Straddle calls. BN is a solid thinking LAG. He's the effective stack.

    Flop ($20) K32r checks to me and I cbet $6. Only the BN calls.

    Turn ($32) 3h bringing bd hearts. I bet $12 BN calls.

    River ($56) 9c I decide most of the range I can get additional money from is Kx and bet $60. Is that logic sound? He definitely 3bets AK pre and some KQ/KJ.

    I'm also not sure how balanced I am here. I'd likely check turn with some of my own Kx and I'd likely bet bigger on the turn with some (all?) of my bluffs.

  • #2
    I don't think this is an optimal spot to over-bet river. If most of his river calling range is K marginal kicker, how often is that calling a pot size + river bet? Also in terms of balance, we need to be asking what draws we're realistically triple barrelling here.

    It's hard to really analyze because as you said, 32o isn't actually part of your range, so it's hard to balance your range, but for the same reason maybe the loose home game makes it a spot you can over-bet explotively, if it will be perceived as bluffy. But that home game dynamic could also work against you if he might be in there with K3...idk this basically becomes a problem without a "fundamental" solution because it's entirely predicated on the home game dynamic


    • RealJPB
      RealJPB commented
      Editing a comment
      Most likely triple barrels here would be A5 and A4s, plus hands like QJhh, JThh, QThh. But as I said above, maybe I size those up on the turn.

  • #3
    I wouldn't overbet here. He's just been calling and has KX max I think. Since he hasn't invested that much, even in a home game I expect someone to be capable of letting go of the $20 they put in when facing a $60 bet holding one pair. I think you want to try to get value from all the marginal hands that want to bluff catch or realize their equity. I'd either bet around $32 here or a smallish blocking looking bet like $16 tryng to induce a bluff or thin/greedy value raise. I would overbet only if I thought he liked to hero vs bets that look like bluffs or is the type that is just never folding KX there to any bet.