Final Table Bubble Triple Barrell Bluff - Thoughts?

[N I V V Y]

Have tried to post the UPSWING replayer vid, but can't. Anyone know how to do it?

iPoker - 2,000/4,000 NL - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO (CO): 123.24 BB
Hero (BTN): 27.65 BB
SB (SB): 19.08 BB
BB (BB): 20.76 BB
UTG (UTG): 42.51 BB

5 players post ante of 0.08 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Dealt to Hero: 6 9

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, BB calls 1 BB

Flop (4.9 BB, 2 players): 9 2 K

BB checks, Hero bets 1.96 BB, BB calls 1.96 BB

Turn (8.82 BB, 2 players): J

BB checks, Hero bets 3.53 BB, BB calls 3.53 BB

River (15.88 BB, 2 players): A

BB checks, Hero bets 20.08 BB and is All IN, BB calls 13.19 BB and is All IN

Hero mucks: 6 9

(One Pair, Nines)
(Pre 31%, Flop 8%, Turn 5%)

BB shows: K 6

(One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 69%, Flop 92%, Turn 95%)

BB wins 42.27 BB


I wouldn't do this in normal play but this was a final table bubble and figured my opponent should be folding most weak 1 pair hands and he could have had a lot of missed draws also. I was going to give up on the river, but figured the ace was a good card to fire the third barrell with.

I was surprised he called with his actual hand. I put this hand through Poker Snowie (obviously Snowie can't make adjustments for MTT ICM) and interesting Snowie says:

call/fold 86/14 with all one paired Kx up to K8

call/fold 35/65 with KT & KQ.

In both instances the EV of calling and folding was O.OO

A couple questions.

1. Was this too aggro of a triple barrell here?

2. Why would Snowie prefer to call with Kx weak kicker and prefer to fold KT & KQ?

The only reason I can come up with is that those hands block some of my nut straight combo's meaning there are a marginally less bluffs in my range?

It is interesting because in game and in my opponents shoes i would think I am better off holding KT & KQ and probably ditching the smaller Kx.

The nuances of this game are just staggering!

[LondonImp]

1. Yes, I think you had a marginal made on the flop and should've just checked.
2. Don't know for sure, but probably because KT/KQ blocks a lot of the the bluffs that we would be making whereas Kx weak kicker keeps all the bluffs in. A triple barrel should be very polarised so a K with any kicker is just a bluff catcher.

None of the suits are showing in your hand history so I presume this way all rainbow?

[N I V V Y]

I coloured them as per a 4 colour deck.

Board was

9h 2c Kh Jc Ad

[LondonImp]

Ah yes of course you did.

[RealJPB]

I might be in the minority here, but particularly for viewing on mobile (but maybe in general) I prefer the hand written out like this to the upswing viewer.

Don't like the triple barrel here at all. If I'm going to bluff, I want a blocker. Instead, the 9 actually blocks some of his folding range.

[LondonImp]

Agreed. I prefer written hand histories too.

[N I V V Y]

Yes. It was a poor bluff. I was gambling on having plenty of Final Table Bubble fold equity. To be honest, with the shallow stacks of the 2 blind players here I don't like the initial raise much either. Having said that, it was a gutsy river call with a weak 2nd pair that could have been behind all the way. Just shows when you get out of line, and compound it street by street, you often get what you deserve. lol

[kkep]

I would like to have both

[CrazyEddie]

no such thing as too aggro ... if u played bad, u played bad... if it failed , it failed.