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C-Bet Vs A Limper on a Coordinated Board?

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  • C-Bet Vs A Limper on a Coordinated Board?

    Same $100 live tournament. Villain is super loose. Just saw him cold call a 3B in MP with 98s. He covers me but doesn't have a huge stack himself, ~15,000.

    H KdKh P CO S 7500 B 200/400/400

    Villain limps in EP. Folds to me and I make it 1400. (IMO my stack is too big to jam over a limper here particularly with the top of the range where I want action.) Villain calls.

    Flop (3800) Tc9s8s Villain Checks. Is this a check back? I can see arguments both ways.

    I ended up betting small, villain jammed and we got it in against AJss.

  • #2
    Without the Ks I would tend to check there and I'm never loving my hand at any point.

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    • #3
      I think your flop bet is standard vs 1 limper at your stack depth.

      Since there was no Ace on the flop, I am looking for how to get all the chips in. If he has the straight or 2 pair, so be it. I really don't like giving him a free card to hit any draws or an Ace on the turn, so I am betting 1900 here every time. Plus, I figure there are plenty of draws willing to play.

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      • #4
        I'm not loving the flop I think I check this flop. It's real coordinated and at this point you have a MM hand. I think I agree with kkep here.

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        • #5
          The board is coordinated, but to me that goes out the window when we only have 15bb in our stack on the flop, almost 10BB in the middle, and are in the top 20% of our range.

          Here are the combos we lose to: QJ (16 combos), not sure he limps with TT, 99, or 88, so let's assume he does with 99 & 88 (6 combos), T8s & 98s & T9s (7 combos) and maybe 76s (4 combos). That might be around 15% of his range.

          Then he has maybe 48% of his range that calls/stacks off where we are ahead, and 36% of his range that probably folds to a cbet.

          KK is a great hand when you have 18BB. KhKd has 65% equity against his range on that board. So our options are to check back allowing 85% of his range to see a free card that can easily put him ahead of us or bet and lose maybe 35% of the time.

          If you check that flop, what is your plan for the turn? We have just told him we have air or what we consider a marginal pair and asked him to bet the turn. There is no turn card we like, not even a K. I imagine if the turn is a spade,6,7,J,Q,9,8,T,A we have to fold if he bets. That is 72% of the deck. Even if it is a 2-5 it could have just gave him a set or 2 pair so we don't love calling a bet.

          Villain has 13,600 left in his stack. So tossing out a 1,900 bet to probe what we do on the turn after we check back would still leave him with 30BB. Seems highly likely we face a bet on the turn. Are we really prepared to call off 31% of our stack leaving us with 10bb if he bets the river and we fold? Are we really giving up on the hand with KK? If we are calling it off anyway, why not bet and take down the 10bb the 36% of the time he will fold.

          I just cannot see ever checking here and letting him get there for free or bluff me out of the pot on the turn.

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