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Ever folding this river?

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  • Ever folding this river?

    25nl zoom hand

    I start with $24ish and villain in BB covers me

    Cutoff raise to 3bb
    Button calls
    I call in SB with 55
    BB calls
    FLOP A-5-2
    Everyone checks
    TURN A-5-2-6
    I bet $1.41 (half pot)
    BB raises to 4.64
    CO+BU fold
    I call. Do you just jam here? To be honest I’m afraid of running into the wheel. Anyway...
    RIVER A-5-2-6-6
    I check, planning to check-shove. However, BB now bets $19, almost twice the pot and enough to stack me.
    I snap call. He shows A6.
    In hindsight, I think it’s worth at least considering a hero fold. I was surprised he bet so big, and when he does it discounts 43 a ton. Do you think there’s enough value we beat here that it’s a mandatory call?
    Last edited by; 11-27-2019, 11:09 AM.

  • #2
    MDF is ~35%, I think it would be hard to defend this if we're folding a boat.

    He has 6 combos of A6, 1 combo of 66, that beat us. 3 combos of 22 that we beat. We only need to be good ~40% of the time for it to be a profitable call, and as described we're good 30% of the time if he never bluffs or over-values Ax, A5.

    Would be good to know if there are any flush draws that could have been turned into bluffs when they miss, I think you have to call here.


    • #3
      No, I'm never folding the river as played. That said, I would have played this a bit different.

      I don't mind the call preflop.
      I don't mind the check on the flop if you plan on check-raising. However, I would at least consider leading this flop. If you're going to lead the flop you should also consider leading with big draws too. but in general, I prefer checking with the plan to check-raise.

      on the turn, I don't like the half pot size, I would definitely bet 75-90% pot. you're multiway and there is a very good chance that you will be called with many worst hands, you want to get value here.

      when you're raised, no question here I jam. yes, they could have the straight. But they could have many other hands that you beat too that will call.

      my estimated range that will call a jam. you have a ton of equity, and you want to get as much value as you can here, and you only have a pot size raise left. just get it in with something like 75% equity and move on with your life.

      by the way, 75% equity was a total guess, but I would assume that it's close to that.

      I would love to see what others think of the villains' range.


      • #4
        I just went back and double checked the hand. Yes there was a flush draw on the flop. Flop was As-5c-6c, but it’s really rare to find big bluffs like that in zone imo. It’s almost always for value and it’s more a question of what value you beat vs lose to. I would guess at least 90% of the time when I call down it’s not a bluff.

        My original post had the 6 and 2 mixed up, but either way a flush draw on the flop and the board on the turn is A-6-5-2
        Last edited by; 11-27-2019, 12:01 PM.


        • #5
          While I realize 55 could be beat on the turn, I am not really sweating the 10 combos that beat us.

          I agree with jamtay, and would have bet 70-100% pot on the turn after the flop checked through and the flush didn't hit.

          When raised, my only concern is how do I get all the chips in. I don't play zoom, so the check back of his 2 pair on a draw heavy board multiway kinda shocks me. Anyway, I would guess the field on zoom isn't folding much or any of their range when they raise in that scenario, so I just go ahead and pile it in.


          • #6
            Sucks that the flop checked through, I would be check raising. I don't think that's the best flop to donk lead on. I'm still learning about that but I believe we want all low cards and I think we should be 3-betting or folding our worst Ax hands pre-flop.

            I'm jamming over his $4.64 bet on the flop or we risk the river going to check check.

            I doubt the results change but that's not really the point.