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Facing 2x overbet on river from UTG 25NL

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  • Facing 2x overbet on river from UTG 25NL

    $0.25 NL - 9 players

    MP+2: 15.36 BB
    CO: 396.36 BB
    BTN: 102.08 BB
    SB: 152.76 BB
    Hero (BB): 183.72 BB
    UTG: 115.16 BB
    UTG+1: 47.08 BB
    MP: 112.88 BB
    MP+1: 145.16 BB

    SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

    Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Qc Kc

    UTG raises to 3.4 BB, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 calls 3.4 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 2.4 BB

    Flop: (10.6 BB, 3 players) 4d Qh Ts
    Hero checks, UTG checks, MP+2 checks

    Turn: (10.6 BB, 3 players) Js
    Hero checks, UTG bets 6.68 BB, fold, Hero calls 6.68 BB

    River: (23.96 BB, 2 players) 3d
    Hero checks, UTG bets 40 BB, Hero?

    323 hands on UTG - stats 22/14/6

  • #2
    I'd be incredibly surprised to see anything other than villain with a straight here. Perhaps a set from time to time but that's it. Player's just don't make this play as a bluff anywhere near often enough to be balanced.

    I'd fold knowing occasionally I'm going to be folding the best hand, but 90%+ making the right play.


    • #3
      so putting utg squarely on AK ... micro stakes .. no point in dwelling too much , they play cards.

      Last edited by CrazyEddie; 11-22-2019, 10:09 PM.


      • #4
        Your range should have had a lot of nut hands looking to have led or check raised the turn (AKo, JJ, TT, 44, QJ, JT, QT, K9), so KQs is at the top of your range to call the turn (AQo is the only better hand). You block the best straights. Folding KQs here effectively means you are folding your entire range on the river.

        If you fold KQs on the river, then the turn call makes no sense. I would not fold the turn, and this would be a call for me on the river.

        Would be interested to know what the UTG c-bet flop % is.


        • MrFuss
          MrFuss commented
          Editing a comment
          with only 323 hands its probably irrelevant. 68%

        • 1Peter510
          1Peter510 commented
          Editing a comment
          323 hands is enough to tell me he is a reasonably competent player with those stats.

          Here is my thinking on his range....

          What does a reasonably competent player check back on the flop? I expect a marginal hand and maybe top set. After the in position player checks the flop and you check the turn, he can feel better about his marginal hand and bet for value thinking he is probably good. When you just call the turn bet, he should figure you have 1 pair or a draw and play accordingly. Since the draws missed, seems like he should bet big to get a Q to fold if a Q beats him or smaller if he beats a Q so he gets value.

          Maybe I am wrong, but i think you had him beat. If he is beating you, then that bet seams to be a very exploitative play betting you don't fold a pair.

      • #5
        Here's what villain may be doing. He could be opening wider. Not sure if he would bet his draws on the flop or not being multi way OOP so I went conservative. He could have slow played QQ or TT. I lose to his premium hands and beat his semi bluffs.

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        • #6
          In my opinion you should fold. When they bet 2x pot you dont need to defend very often.


          • #7
            mostly calling

            checking 100% I think

            I would bet here. I can think of enough hands we can get value from.
            What was your reason to check?
            Once you check there is no reason to raise or fold

            As played I would check with intention to call most bets.
            2x pot bet is not what I hoped for.
            323 hands should give you some notes and/or an indication about UTG's pfr/cbet utg. It seems unlikely this is a balanced play where you have to worry about calling enough in order to not be exploited.
            If I have no notes about villain spazzing off or making weird river plays, I think I'm folding.


            • #8
              Originally posted by Supermensch View Post
              What was your reason to check?
              This is a marginal made hand when the J turns. If it were a blank I would have bet. I'd much rather check call than get raised or called.


              • #9
                Good point reg turn play.
                I assumed there were enough hands you could extract value from. Taking a closer look that seems tight.
                Putting KQ in you marginal made c/c range seems very reasonable.

                Above flop range doesn't contain any bluffs. I assume there will be at least some bluffs. AK will be part of that sometimes I reckon.


                • #10
                  hahaha This forum , most of us still not theoretical good. But most have good experience.

                  In theory you can go count and find out in your range does QK need to call here . in practical do your opponent play near GTO , do your opponent over bluff in this type of spot with this bet sizing , if you have the answer to those then you know the answer

                  Tips in general no much player play near GTO , even if villain is a GTO AI, this hand itself wont make any ev , if villain is GTO, Our call only make villain indifference


                  • CrazyEddie
                    CrazyEddie commented
                    Editing a comment
                    I'm impressed ! think you can be the replacement of jjpreggler
                    Last edited by CrazyEddie; 11-25-2019, 10:37 AM.

                • #11
                  I ended up folding. I think this is almost always 2 pair+. If villain has the capacity to make a 2x bluff on the river good for him. KQ is at the bottom of my range here and there are better combos I can call with.
                  Last edited by MrFuss; 11-25-2019, 12:22 PM.