Draw I played last night.

[jamtay317]

Last night I played a hand in a 1/2 game that I use to play in quite often. I have since stopped playing for different reasons, but it was close and I was too lazy to drive far.

so I had been folding a lot, as I was card dead for an hour or so, and I ran into this hand.

Hand: Qs9s.....Effective stack: 210....P: BTN
CO(weak loose-passive player) limps, I raise 10, SB(Bad loose player) calls, BB(Good LAG) Raises 30, CO Folds, I call, SB folds

Flop: KsTs4c
BB bets 17, I Raise 57, BB allin, I fold.

BB shows KK.

I feel my range calling a 3 bet in position against a good lag may look something like :


I gave him a polar range of somelike like:



as you can see

Its saying that I should raise Qs9s.

So on with my question, do you agree with my line here? If not what would you change?

[reeeeeeper]

EDIT: I missed 120 in the denominator, see Peter's answer. The conclusion is similar, but not even close, must call.

I would not fold to his all-in, that's for sure. There's $190 in the pot plus the $120 rest of his stack and you need to call $120 more. 120 / (120 + 190) = 39% You have ~10-12 outs so about 40-45%(?) equity. Even against his specific hand, one of the worst (for you) that he can have you have ~35%, so while it would have been a small mistake to call here, I think it's a also mistake to fold against his range after you raise. Just ran it against (KK+, TT, AKs, AsJs, As4s, AcTc, QJs, 5s4s, AKo) and you're 42%.

If you were planning to do that why not just take the cheaply offered turn card?

[jamtay317]

I am not sure, I guess that I didn't think of that option. I just thought to raise was the best option here. would you just call the 17 and see a turn?

[1Peter510]

So on the flop you have $72 in the pot ($30 BB, $2 CO, $30 Hero, $10 SB).

He bets $17, giving you 16% odds and you have at least 11 outs (any spade other than a 4 and any J). You will hit 23% of the time so you can print your 7% equity and call.

That said, I don't mind the raise. You at least have TT that would definitely raise here and IMO Qs9s and QsJs are great to balance with precisely because you can actually call a jam with them (see below about your equity).

When he jams, you are calling $123 ($210 less $30 less $57) to win $432. You need 28% equity and have 33.8% equity against his hand (which is the best hand he can have here). That is a mandatory call here.

At first I thought I was indifferent to calling or raising the flop. But the more I think about it, I like raising better than calling. His range includes AA, AK, maybe QQ or JJ that could very well fold to a raise and yet you would still have the right equity to call if he is at the top of his range and jams. I like a raise with plan to call if jammed on the best.

[reeeeeeper]

Wow, did I really mess the math up that much? Ah, yeah, I needed another $120 in the denominator. No way you can fold here.